Chamath @ 01:44:00Wrong
politicsgovernment
In the near-term (upcoming national election cycle as of July 2023), Spain’s government will shift to the political right (i.e., right-leaning parties will gain power or form the governing coalition).
Spain looks like it's about to tip right.
Explanation
The prediction tied the “tip right” to the near‑term national election cycle (the July 23, 2023 Spanish general election) and specified that this meant right‑leaning parties would gain power or form the governing coalition.
Here is what happened:
- In the July 23, 2023 general election, the centre‑right People’s Party (PP) did win a plurality with 137 seats, ahead of the governing Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) with 121 seats. However, the right‑wing bloc (PP + Vox + small allies) fell short of a majority (around 171 seats vs. 176 needed).
- Because the right bloc lacked the numbers, PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo was unable to form a government.
- Instead, Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) was re‑elected prime minister on 16 November 2023 after securing an absolute majority of 179 MPs with a coalition agreement between the centre‑left PSOE and left‑wing Sumar, backed by several regional/nationalist parties. This produced another left‑of‑centre coalition government, not a right‑wing one.
- Subsequent reporting through 2024–2025 still describes Spain as governed by this PSOE–Sumar coalition under Sánchez, indicating no later right‑wing takeover within that same electoral cycle.
Because the national government did not shift to the right or come under the control of right‑leaning parties during the referenced election cycle, the prediction that “Spain looks like it’s about to tip right” (in the sense of its government changing hands) did not come true.