ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025

E138: Presidential Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in conversation with the Besties

Fri, 21 Jul 2023 21:53:00 +0000
Back to episodes
Sacks @ 01:47:18Wrong
politicsconflicteconomy
As of July 21, 2023, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will most likely be a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch, and Joe Biden is more likely than Trump to win the general election, unless one of three conditions occurs before the election: (1) the U.S. falls into a recession, or (2) the Ukrainian side collapses in the Russia–Ukraine war, or (3) a January 6th–related indictment significantly harms Biden’s prospects.
I think right now it looks like we're on track to have a Biden-trump rematch. And right now, Biden probably looks like he's going to win, barring a recession happening or the Ukrainian side collapsing in the war or the January 6th indictment.
Explanation

Key parts of Sacks’s forecast did not match what ultimately happened:

  1. No Biden–Trump rematch
    Sacks said “we’re on track to have a Biden–Trump rematch.” In reality, Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race on July 21, 2024, and Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee on August 5, 2024. The general election on November 5, 2024 was Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris, not Biden vs. Trump.(en.wikipedia.org)

  2. Biden did not end up the more likely (or actual) winner
    Sacks also said that, as of July 2023, Biden “probably looks like he’s going to win.” In the actual 2024 election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris, winning 312 electoral votes to Harris’s 226 and also winning the national popular vote. Biden was not on the ballot and did not win.(en.wikipedia.org)

  3. His listed “unless” conditions largely did not occur before the election

    • Recession: As of October 3, 2024, the Congressional Research Service reported that the NBER had not dated any new peak (and thus no new recession) after the April 2020 trough, meaning the U.S. was still in the same expansion through the 2024 election.(congress.gov)
    • Ukrainian collapse: Ukraine suffered serious reverses (e.g., loss of Avdiivka and other territory in 2024), but its military and state did not collapse; by 2024–25 the front had largely stabilized into a long defensive line and Ukraine continued to fight across a ~1,200 km front.(en.wikipedia.org)
    • January 6–related indictment: A federal indictment related to Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and the January 6 attack was filed on August 1, 2023 (United States v. Trump).(en.wikipedia.org) However, that case never reached a verdict before the election and there is no clear evidence it “significantly” harmed Biden’s electoral prospects; indeed, Biden withdrew for reasons centered on age, performance and political viability, and Trump went on to win the general election against Harris.(en.wikipedia.org)

Because (a) the predicted Biden–Trump rematch did not occur, (b) Biden did not end up the winner, and (c) the specified exception conditions either did not materialize (recession, Ukrainian collapse) or did not clearly play out in the way implied, the overall prediction does not match the eventual outcome.

Chamath @ 01:44:00Wrong
politicsgovernment
In the near-term (upcoming national election cycle as of July 2023), Spain’s government will shift to the political right (i.e., right-leaning parties will gain power or form the governing coalition).
Spain looks like it's about to tip right.
Explanation

The prediction tied the “tip right” to the near‑term national election cycle (the July 23, 2023 Spanish general election) and specified that this meant right‑leaning parties would gain power or form the governing coalition.

Here is what happened:

  • In the July 23, 2023 general election, the centre‑right People’s Party (PP) did win a plurality with 137 seats, ahead of the governing Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) with 121 seats. However, the right‑wing bloc (PP + Vox + small allies) fell short of a majority (around 171 seats vs. 176 needed).
  • Because the right bloc lacked the numbers, PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo was unable to form a government.
  • Instead, Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) was re‑elected prime minister on 16 November 2023 after securing an absolute majority of 179 MPs with a coalition agreement between the centre‑left PSOE and left‑wing Sumar, backed by several regional/nationalist parties. This produced another left‑of‑centre coalition government, not a right‑wing one.
  • Subsequent reporting through 2024–2025 still describes Spain as governed by this PSOE–Sumar coalition under Sánchez, indicating no later right‑wing takeover within that same electoral cycle.

Because the national government did not shift to the right or come under the control of right‑leaning parties during the referenced election cycle, the prediction that “Spain looks like it’s about to tip right” (in the sense of its government changing hands) did not come true.