Sacks @ 00:23:28Wrong
ventureeconomy
Relative to the 2021 pace, annual venture capital deployment by US VCs over the next few years (starting 2022) will fall to roughly one‑third of the 2021 level as firms revert to a 2.5–3 year deployment cycle.
If you just go back to a two and a half or three year pace of deployment and before in 2021, we were at a one year pace of deployment, divide the availability of capital by two thirds. I mean, you know, only one third as much will be deployed in any given year.View on YouTube
Explanation
Key facts:
- PitchBook–NVCA data show that U.S. VC deal value in 2021 was about $330B ($329.9B) – the peak year for deployment. (nvca.org)
- In 2022, U.S. VC deal value was $238.3B, down only ~30% from 2021 (about 70% of the 2021 level), not to one‑third. (gamesbeat.com)
- In 2023, U.S. venture deal value fell further to $170.6B—roughly half of 2021, still well above one‑third. (en.ain.ua)
- In 2024, U.S. startup funding rebounded to about $209B, roughly 60% of 2021’s level, again nowhere near one‑third. (reuters.com)
- By 2025, AI-driven megadeals had pushed U.S. VC investing back to its highest levels since 2021; H1 2025 already totaled about $163B and Q1 2025 dealmaking was described as a “biggest splurge in three years,” putting 2025 on track to rival 2021 rather than remain at one‑third of it. (rothschildandco.com)
Across 2022–2024 (and into 2025), annual U.S. VC deployment has generally been in the ~50–70% of 2021 range and is now rebounding toward prior highs, not stabilizing around one‑third of 2021. That makes Sacks’s quantitative prediction about future annual deployment levels substantially incorrect.