Assessing the 18‑month window from roughly October 2022 through March 2024:

1. Unemployment “will go back up”
   The data: The U.S. unemployment rate was about 3.6% in Q4 2022 and only edged up to 3.8% by Q4 2023, with BLS explicitly describing the labor market as still “strong.”(bls.gov) It did not meaningfully deteriorate during 2023; the more noticeable rise to around 4.1% came later, in mid‑2024, i.e., after most of his 18‑month window.(reuters.com)
   Verdict: At best marginally correct and much milder than implied.

2. “Inflation will be sticky”
   The data: CPI inflation averaged 8.0% in 2022, then fell to 4.1% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024.(usinflationcalculator.com) Year‑over‑year CPI was about 3% by mid‑2023 and mid‑3% by early 2024, well down from 2022’s peak.(beautifydata.com) Inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target but clearly decelerated instead of staying near 2022’s highs. Verdict: Partly right in the sense of remaining above target in 2023, but wrong on it staying broadly “sticky” at 2022‑like stress levels.

3. “Real earnings will shrink”
   The data: For 2023, BLS reports median usual weekly earnings up 5.5% while CPI rose 4.1%, meaning real median weekly pay increased.(bls.gov) BLS real‑earnings series show real average hourly earnings rising in 2023–24 (e.g., +1.4% Jan 2023–Jan 2024, with real weekly earnings roughly flat to slightly down, then positive into late 2024).(bls.gov) Earlier in 2022 real earnings had been falling, but over most of his forecast window they recovered or at worst stagnated, not persistently shrank. Verdict: Wrong for the forecast period.

4. “Consumption will ebb” for the U.S. consumer
   The data: Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) kept growing. Current‑dollar PCE rose 9.8% in 2022 and another 6.4% in 2023.(fraser.stlouisfed.org) Real PCE for the nation increased 2.5% in 2023, with real PCE rising in 48 states and D.C.(bea.gov) That is slower growth than 2021–22 but still healthy expansion, not an ebb or contraction. Verdict: Wrong; consumer spending remained resilient in real terms.

5. “Earnings will not be that great” (corporate earnings)
   The data: S&P 500 earnings growth for full‑year 2023 was about 0.6%, far below the 10‑year average (~8%), with actual quarterly earnings declines in 1H23.(insight.factset.com) That fits “not that great.” However, by 2024, S&P 500 earnings rebounded strongly: estimates and realized data point to roughly 9–13% earnings growth for 2024, and Q4 2024 earnings were ~15% higher year‑over‑year.(apnews.com) His timeframe—“through 2023 and possibly even a little bit of 24”—captures both a weak 2023 and the start of a strong 2024 rebound. Verdict: Largely right for 2023, but wrong once 2024’s rebound is included in his own stated horizon.

6. Overall consumer conditions (“really tough, sticky time”)
   Pulling this together:

   • Labor market stayed historically tight with only a slight uptick in unemployment through 2023.(bls.gov)
   • Inflation fell sharply from 2022 levels, even if still a bit above target.(usinflationcalculator.com)
   • Real incomes and real consumption generally rose, not fell.(bls.gov)
   • Corporate earnings were flat/weak in 2023 but then strong in 2024.(insight.factset.com)

   Households certainly felt a squeeze from prior price jumps and high interest rates, but the quantitative indicators do not show the broad, sustained deterioration he predicted for the 18‑month period starting late 2022.

Bottom line: Some narrow elements (slightly higher unemployment, lackluster 2023 earnings, above‑target inflation) align with his view, but the core of the prediction—shrinking real earnings, ebbing consumption, and a generally “really tough” grind for consumers through 2023–early 2024—runs contrary to observed data. Overall the prediction is best characterized as wrong.