Chamath predicted that Adobe’s proposed $20B acquisition of Figma, announced in September 2022, would ultimately receive regulatory approval and close. In fact, the opposite occurred.

On December 18, 2023, Adobe and Figma publicly announced that they had mutually agreed to terminate the merger agreement, explicitly citing that there was “no clear path to receive necessary regulatory approvals” from the European Commission and the UK Competition and Markets Authority. (news.adobe.com) News coverage from multiple outlets (CNBC, Associated Press, Forbes, TechCrunch, Ars Technica) confirms that the $20B deal was abandoned due to regulatory pushback and that Adobe paid Figma a $1B termination fee. (cnbc.com)

Figma’s later move to file for an IPO and its SEC filings further describe the Adobe deal as an “abandoned merger” terminated in December 2023, underscoring that it never closed. (sec.gov)

Because the acquisition did not receive final regulatory approval and did not close, Chamath’s prediction that “this thing is going to close” was wrong.