Adobe’s proposed $20 billion acquisition of Figma, announced in September 2022, was not completed. On December 18, 2023, Adobe and Figma issued a joint statement saying they had mutually agreed to terminate the merger agreement, citing “no clear path to receive necessary regulatory approvals” from the European Commission and the UK Competition and Markets Authority.(news.adobe.com)

Major coverage from outlets such as CNBC, Forbes, The Guardian, and TechCrunch confirms that the deal was abandoned and that Adobe is paying Figma a $1 billion termination/breakup fee.(cnbc.com)

Because the prediction was that the deal “will successfully close (i.e., will not be blocked or abandoned)” and the deal was in fact terminated and never closed, the prediction is wrong.