Chamath's claim is that within roughly 3–5 years of September 2022, California-style interventionist policies in energy and the broader economy would be clearly seen to have failed and to have worsened the problems they were meant to solve.

As of late 2025, the picture is mixed. Economically, California remains an economic powerhouse: its GDP reached about $3.9–4.1 trillion by 2023–24, making it the 4th–5th largest economy in the world and accounting for roughly 14% of U.S. GDP, with growth rates comparable to or above many large economies. (ppic.org) Clean‑tech, AI and other high‑value sectors are strong, and forecasts expect growth to modestly outpace the U.S. again by 2025–26. (newsroom.ucla.edu) That is not consistent with an obvious economic collapse attributable to these policies.

On energy and climate metrics, California has expanded clean power rapidly: by 2023–25, renewables supplied around 57% of in‑state electricity, with clean energy (including nuclear and hydro) reaching about three‑quarters of CAISO grid demand at times, and the state remains a national leader in solar build‑out. (en.wikipedia.org) Greenhouse‑gas emissions have fallen roughly 14% since its cap‑and‑trade program began, and that program has been extended and is credited with helping California meet earlier emissions targets while funding tens of billions of dollars in climate projects and some bill credits. (latimes.com) The grid has faced stress in heat waves but has mostly avoided large rolling blackouts in recent years, helped by rapid deployment of battery storage and demand‑response measures. (en.wikipedia.org) These outcomes suggest the policies have had at least partial success on their own stated climate and reliability goals.

At the same time, serious downsides are evident. California now has among the very highest electricity rates in the U.S., roughly double the national average in 2024–25, creating a large price premium for households and businesses. (comparepower.com) The state also struggles with high costs of living, homelessness, and relatively weak recent job growth and high unemployment, which some analysts partly attribute to its regulatory and climate/energy policy mix, especially for blue‑collar and energy‑intensive industries. (thebreakthrough.org) Even sympathetic policy analysts argue for a reset rather than claiming the current model is clearly working for all residents. (thebreakthrough.org)

Because: (a) there is credible evidence of both meaningful climate/energy successes and significant cost and distributional problems, (b) whether the policies ‘work’ is ultimately a normative judgment on trade‑offs, and (c) the upper end of Chamath's 3–5‑year window (through 2027) has not yet elapsed, it is not possible to say in late 2025 that it is clearly established these policies ‘don’t work’ and have simply worsened the economic and energy ‘hellscape.’ The evidence so far is mixed rather than decisively confirming or refuting his strong claim, so the prediction is best scored as inconclusive at this time.