Sacks argued that because high natural gas prices were shutting fertilizer plants and constraining food‑grade CO2, Germany was “about to run out of beer” around Oktoberfest 2022.

What actually happened:

• Oktoberfest 2022 went ahead after a two‑year COVID hiatus and drew about 5.7 million visitors.(amp.dw.com)
• Festival statistics report that attendees consumed roughly 5.6 million liters of beer at the 2022 Oktoberfest, only moderately below 2019 levels, with no mention of significant beer shortages or taps running dry.(oktoberfesttours.travel)
• Contemporary coverage of Oktoberfest 2022 highlighted sharply higher beer prices and production costs due to energy and raw‑material inflation, not an inability to supply beer.(wsls.com)
• EU and German brewers did warn in September 2022 that a CO2 shortage was looming as fertilizer plants curtailed output, and that this could mean “less beer flowing in the coming months,” but these were framed as risks and cost pressures, not an actual collapse of beer availability in Germany at that time.(brusselstimes.com)

Given that millions of liters of beer were served at Oktoberfest 2022 and there are no credible reports of Germany experiencing a severe beer shortage or anything close to “running out of beer,” the prediction did not come true.