JD's already won the primaries, and I expect he will win. I mean, it's going to be, I think, a red wave in November and Ohio is a pretty red state these days. Blake stalls to win the primary in Arizona. That's a little bit more of a toss up, but I think he'll do well.View on YouTube
Breaking the prediction into components:
-
JD Vance wins the Ohio U.S. Senate general election – This happened. In the November 8, 2022 election, Republican JD Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan 53.03% to 46.92% for the open Ohio Senate seat.(en.wikipedia.org)
-
Republicans experience a broad ‘red wave’ nationally in November 2022 – This did not occur. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans won only a narrow House majority while Democrats expanded their Senate majority by one seat; multiple post‑election analyses explicitly state that the widely anticipated “red wave did not materialize.”(en.wikipedia.org) Historically, the president’s party usually loses many more seats in midterms, so this outcome represented Democratic overperformance, not a Republican wave.
-
Blake Masters will win the Arizona GOP Senate primary and perform strongly in the November general election – This is mixed but overall contrary to the “do well”/“perform strongly” framing:
- Masters did win the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona.(washingtonpost.com)
- In the general election, however, he lost to Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly 51.4% to 46.5%.(ballotwire.com) Subsequent analyses note that Masters was the weakest‑performing statewide Republican candidate in Arizona and that he underperformed Trump’s 2020 margin, with one major outlet labeling him among the “worst candidates” of 2022.(en.wikipedia.org) That performance is hard to characterize as “doing well” or “strong.”
Because the prediction hinged on a broad red wave and a strong Blake Masters general‑election showing—both of which clearly failed—despite being partly correct about Vance’s win and Masters’s primary, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong.