Sacks @ 01:26:47Inconclusive
conflictpolitics
The Russia–Ukraine war will ultimately end with an agreement under which (1) Ukraine is formally neutral and not in NATO, (2) the Donbas region gains autonomy protecting Russian speakers and is effectively under Russian influence, and (3) Crimea remains under Russian control; this outcome will occur regardless of how long the war lasts or how much destruction occurs in Ukraine beforehand.
Let me just tell you right now, the deal that would end this war is the same deal that was on the table last year with zero bloodshed, which is Ukraine remains a neutral state. There's autonomy for the Russian speakers in the Donbas. And Crimea basically remains part of Russia. That was the deal. That is the deal. That will be the deal. The only question is, does the whole country have to be destroyedView on YouTube
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, there has been no final peace agreement ending the Russia–Ukraine war that matches the structure Sacks described (neutral Ukraine outside NATO, formal autonomy of Donbas under effective Russian influence, and internationally accepted Russian control of Crimea).
Key facts:
- No comprehensive peace treaty or final political settlement exists yet. The war, begun with Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, is ongoing; front lines and limited ceasefires have shifted, but there is no agreed end-state constitutional or territorial settlement between Russia and Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s NATO orientation has hardened rather than disappeared. Ukraine formally applied for NATO membership in September 2022 and NATO states have repeatedly affirmed that Ukraine has a future in NATO, even if no immediate accession date is set. Ukraine’s 2019 constitutionally-enshrined Euro-Atlantic integration course remains in place and has not been replaced by a formal neutrality commitment.
- Donbas status is unresolved and contested. Russia claims to have annexed Donetsk and Luhansk (and two other regions) following staged referendums in September 2022, but these annexations are internationally rejected. There is no mutually agreed autonomy framework recognized by both Kyiv and Moscow; instead, there is de facto military control by Russia in some areas and ongoing combat in others.
- Crimea remains under Russian occupation but without an agreed settlement. Russia has occupied Crimea since 2014 and claims it as its territory; Ukraine continues to reject that claim and has conducted military strikes and special operations against Russian forces and infrastructure in Crimea. No agreement has been reached in which Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea.
Because the war has not ended and no final agreement is in place, it is impossible to say whether the eventual end-state of the war will or will not match Sacks’s detailed prediction. The necessary time horizon ("that will be the deal") has not yet elapsed; thus the prediction’s truth value cannot currently be determined.
Therefore the correct classification is: inconclusive (too early).