Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Sacks @ 01:15:08Inconclusive
politicsconflict
The eventual political settlement of the Russia–Ukraine war will mirror the prewar three-point plan: (1) Ukraine will remain a neutral state outside of NATO; (2) the eastern Donbas region will have autonomy protecting Russian speakers under de facto Russian control; and (3) Crimea will remain part of Russia, effectively formalizing Russia’s control over approximately the eastern 20% of Ukraine plus Crimea.
Smart observers of this conflict have been outlining that three point plan for over a year, and that is what we're going to end up with. The only difference is that it's going to be implemented by force, and Ukraine will be destroying the process. That is basically where we're at right now. Russia has. They've taken over the Donbas. They've taken over this eastern 20% of the country. They have Crimea and Ukraine. Basically. The rest of it will not be part of NATO. That is basically what the Russians have done is implement by force a plan that, frankly, we could have agreed to through negotiation a year ago and avoided all this death and destructionView on YouTube
Explanation

As of November 30, 2025, there is still no final political settlement or peace treaty ending the Russia–Ukraine war. Fighting continues on multiple fronts while various U.S.-brokered and European-influenced peace frameworks are being discussed, but all sides acknowledge that key issues such as territorial control and Ukraine’s security guarantees remain unresolved.(reuters.com)

Current facts partially resemble elements of the prediction: Russia militarily controls roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea and most of the Donbas region, and this control has been de facto but not internationally recognized.(aljazeera.com) Ukraine also remains outside NATO, though membership and security guarantees are an ongoing political issue rather than a settled commitment to permanent neutrality.(euronews.com) However, Ukrainian leadership continues to publicly reject territorial concessions and insists that any peace must not legitimize Russian annexations, directly contesting the kind of formalized outcome the prediction describes.(time.com)

Because the prediction was specifically about the eventual political settlement and no such settlement yet exists, it is not possible to determine whether the war will ultimately end in the three-point arrangement Sacks described. The forecast is therefore too early to judge and must be rated as inconclusive.