Evidence since mid‑2022 shows that Jason was partly right about a surge in investigations and enforcement, but wrong about the longer‑term regulatory outcome he forecast.

1. Part of the prediction that did happen: intense criminal/civil activity

• Sam Bankman‑Fried was prosecuted and convicted on seven counts of fraud and conspiracy over the FTX collapse, receiving a 25‑year sentence in 2024, a marquee DOJ case that put the whole industry under scrutiny.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Binance and its CEO Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty in 2023 to anti‑money‑laundering and sanctions violations, paying over $4 billion in one of the largest corporate criminal resolutions ever.(justice.gov)
• The SEC sued Coinbase in June 2023 for allegedly operating as an unregistered exchange, broker, and clearing agency and for an unregistered staking program, a major civil case against a flagship U.S. exchange.(sec.gov)(sec.gov)
• New York’s Attorney General brought and settled multiple high‑profile actions (Nexo, KuCoin, Genesis, Gemini, DCG), securing hundreds of millions to billions in recoveries and bans on certain crypto activities in New York, explicitly framing this as increasing oversight and regulation of crypto platforms.(ag.ny.gov)(ag.ny.gov)(ag.ny.gov)(ag.ny.gov)(ag.ny.gov)
• DOJ and other agencies also pursued scams and laundering cases (e.g., a 2025 civil complaint to seize $225M in Tether tied to “pig‑butchering” frauds).(theverge.com)

These confirm his expectation of substantial DOJ/state AG enforcement and extensive discovery.

2. Where the prediction fails: “most regulated space we’ve ever seen” & killing opportunity

Jason’s key claim was not just more enforcement, but that crypto would become “the most regulated space we’ve ever seen” and that regulation would “kill a lot of the opportunity.” On those points, the record diverges:

• No overwhelming, comprehensive regulatory framework. As of 2025, the U.S. still lacks a broad, unified federal crypto statute. The Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act remains only a proposal.(en.wikipedia.org) New York’s Attorney General was still urging Congress in April 2025 to pass strong federal crypto legislation, explicitly citing a “lack of strong federal regulations on cryptocurrencies”—the opposite of a fully saturated regulatory environment.(ag.ny.gov)
• First major federal law is limited and criticized as not strict enough. The 2025 GENIUS Act creates a framework for payment stablecoins, with reserve and transparency requirements, but it is only one slice of the sector.(en.wikipedia.org)(en.wikipedia.org) Consumer Reports and Democratic critics argue it does not provide enough consumer protections and may be too permissive toward big tech and industry players.(en.wikipedia.org)(apnews.com)(politico.com) That is not consistent with crypto becoming one of the most heavily regulated sectors in the economy.
• Enforcement pivoted away from maximal crackdown. In 2025 the DOJ disbanded the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team and announced it would stop using enforcement as de‑facto regulation of exchanges, mixers, and wallets, refocusing instead on traditional crimes (terrorism, drugs, hacking) that merely use crypto.(reuters.com)(theguardian.com) Trump’s Executive Order 14178 simultaneously revoked a prior Biden‑era digital‑asset EO and tasked a new group with proposing a friendlier federal framework, framed as ending a regulatory “war on crypto.”(en.wikipedia.org)(washingtonpost.com) This is a rollback, not a progression to the “most regulated space we’ve ever seen.”
• Other industries remain much more heavily regulated. Empirical studies of U.S. regulation (e.g., RegData‑based counts of legal restrictions) consistently show sectors like petroleum and coal products manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, broadcasting, depository credit intermediation, health care, and utilities among the most heavily regulated industries—crypto does not appear on these “most regulated” lists at all.(planetcompliance.com)(sciencedirect.com)(mercatus.org)(cnbc.com) That contradicts the idea that crypto has become the or even one of the most regulated spaces in the economy.

3. Opportunity and innovation clearly not “killed”

• Record prices and mainstream financial integration. In January 2024 the SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, widely described as a watershed moment opening the door for mainstream and institutional investment.(techcrunch.com)(winston.com) By March 2024, Bitcoin reached new all‑time highs above $69,000–$73,000, far above its post‑2022 lows, with inflows into the new ETFs a major driver.(ft.com)(theguardian.com)(statmuse.com)(time.com) Those are not the price dynamics of an opportunity that has been “killed.”
• Policy pivot toward promotion, not suppression, of crypto. In 2025 Trump signed Executive Order 14178 and launched a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and broader Digital Asset Stockpile to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” while publicly declaring an end to the government “war on crypto.”(en.wikipedia.org)(en.wikipedia.org)(washingtonpost.com) The SEC in 2025 also streamlined listing rules for spot crypto ETFs, explicitly aiming to foster innovation and lower barriers to digital‑asset products.(cnbc.com) These moves are designed to enable profit and innovation, not extinguish them.

Given this:

• The narrow part of Jason’s forecast—big DOJ and regulatory actions—came true.
• But the central, stronger claim that this would produce crypto as “the most regulated space” and would “kill a lot of the opportunity” is not supported by the trajectory of law, policy, or market outcomes through late 2025.

Because the prediction, as stated, hinges on those strong claims about extreme regulation and destroyed opportunity, the overall forecast did not materialize as described.