ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E85: SBF's crypto bailout, Zendesk sells for ~$10B, buyout targets, US diplomacy, AlphaFold & more
Back
Chamath @ 00:34:08Wrong
marketseconomy
From the then‑current Bitcoin price of roughly $20,000 in late June 2022, Bitcoin still has substantial downside and is likely to rebase toward a "rational" level in the roughly $3,500–$5,000 range (i.e., on the order of ~75% further decline) as post‑QE repricing completes over the subsequent market cycle.
And if you look at that chart, what it really tells you is that the baseline price of Bitcoin, where things seemed, you know, where rational supply and demand were meeting each other before all these, you know. B [00:34:07.110]: Five, 10,000. A [00:34:08.909]: 3500 to 5000. B [00:34:10.870]: Yeah, I would say about 5000. A [00:34:12.190]: Still 75% from here.View on YouTube
Explanation

Bitcoin was trading around $20,000 at the end of June 2022; StatMuse shows a June 30, 2022 closing price of about $19,800, consistent with the podcast’s reference point.​(statmuse.com)

After that, the lowest closing price for Bitcoin from 2022 through November 29, 2025 was $15,787.28 on November 21, 2022, and this remains the cycle low in that multi‑year window. Bitcoin never traded anywhere near the predicted $3,500–$5,000 “rational” band.​(statmuse.com) From the June 2022 reference level (~$20k) to the bottom (~$15.8k), the drawdown was on the order of 20–25%, not the additional ~75% decline Chamath described.

Moreover, the subsequent market cycle has clearly progressed: Bitcoin later set new all‑time highs above $124k–$126k in October 2025, far above both the 2022 levels and any supposed $3.5k–$5k “rebase.”​(statmuse.com) With more than three years elapsed and a full new bull cycle and ATHs already in the books, there has been ample time for the hypothesized post‑QE repricing to occur.

Because Bitcoin never approached the $3,500–$5,000 range and instead bottomed around $15.8k before rallying to new record highs, Chamath’s prediction that it would likely rebase to that much lower band over the subsequent cycle is incorrect.