Chamath @ 01:04:44Right
economy
From roughly June 2022, U.S. CPI inflation readings will remain in the 8–9% year-over-year range for at least the next 3–4 monthly prints (through approximately September–October 2022), after which inflation may start to improve marginally.
No. As I've said, I think you're going to see eight and 9% inflation prints for at least the next 3 or 4 months, minimum. I think that things could get marginally better after thatView on YouTube
Explanation
U.S. CPI (year-over-year, headline) did stay in the 8–9% range for four consecutive monthly readings around the time of his prediction, then began to decline:
- June 2022: 9.1% YoY (largest 12‑month increase since 1981). (theworlddata.com)
- July 2022: 8.5% YoY. (bls.gov)
- August 2022: 8.3% YoY. (theworlddata.com)
- September 2022: 8.2% YoY. (bls.gov)
- October 2022: 7.7% YoY, the smallest 12‑month increase since January 2022, i.e., a marginal improvement from the 8%+ range. (bls.gov)
Chamath’s claim was that from roughly June 2022 there would be “eight and 9% inflation prints for at least the next 3 or 4 months” and that “things could get marginally better after that.” From June through September there were indeed four straight CPI prints between 8% and 9%, and by October the YoY rate had edged down below 8%. The realized data therefore matches both the persistence he forecast and the subsequent marginal improvement, so the prediction is best judged as right.