Evidence since mid‑2022 shows that broad U.S. residential real estate did not experience the kind of follow‑on “carnage” or large further price declines Sacks was anticipating.

• The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index peaked around June 2022, then fell only about 5% through January 2023 before rebounding. By July 2023 it had already fully erased that dip and reached a new all‑time high, and it went on to post a long streak of consecutive record highs through late 2024. (spglobal.com)
• Articles summarizing the index show home prices hitting yet another record high in June 2024, with prices nationally up 5.4% year‑over‑year. (cnbc.com) A June 2024 analysis likewise notes continued national price gains rather than a major downturn. (nasdaq.com)
• By 2025, transaction data show record or near‑record median sale prices, not a sustained crash: e.g., the national median existing‑home price hit an all‑time high of about $435,300 in June 2025, and March 2025 also set a record high for that month. (nypost.com) The main problems in housing have been low affordability and weak sales volumes, not deep nationwide price declines.

So while some other asset classes did suffer significant pain after mid‑2022—most notably:

• Bonds, with the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index posting about a –14% loss in 2022, its worst year on record, and a historically rare stretch of weak bond returns over 2022–2024. (statmuse.com)
• Commercial office real estate, where U.S. office building prices have dropped roughly 37% from 2019 levels and another 11% in 2024 alone, with vacancy rates near records. (businessinsider.com)

…the specific, emphasized part of the prediction—that the “carnage” in growth stocks would rotate into major asset classes like residential real estate and cause further significant drops there—did not occur at the national level. National home prices are higher today than at the time of the prediction. On that basis, the prediction is best judged wrong.