Chamath @ 00:10:30Wrong
marketseconomy
Starting from mid-2022, the process of withdrawing excess liquidity (tightening/quantitative tightening) will take roughly three years in total, with the bottom of the equity bear market not occurring for approximately another 18 months (around late 2023).
it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global GDP. It's going to take three years probably of the slow, meticulous, you know, running off of money, you know, not reintroducing new money. So it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out... That may mean the bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months.View on YouTube
Explanation
Chamath’s prediction had two main components:
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Duration of liquidity withdrawal / QT
- The Federal Reserve began balance-sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) in June 2022 and has been shrinking its securities holdings continuously since then. Fed reports note that securities holdings had fallen by about $1.8–2.1 trillion from June 2022 through late 2024 and March 2025, explicitly dating the start of runoff to June 2022 and describing it as an ongoing process. (federalreserve.gov)
- By late 2025, reporting describes this as a roughly three‑year QT program that is now ending or about to end. (ft.com)
- So his statement that it would take “three years” of slowly running off excess money is broadly consistent with how long QT actually lasted.
-
Timing of the equity bear‑market bottom (~18 months later)
- The S&P 500’s 2022 bear market is widely documented as having bottomed on October 12, 2022, with a decline of about 25% from the January 2022 peak. (campaignforamillion.com)
- Subsequent analyses in 2025 describe a bull market that began from that October 12, 2022 low, with the bull run approaching its three‑year anniversary and gains of roughly 80–90% since that trough—confirming that October 12, 2022 is treated in hindsight as the cycle low. (reuters.com)
- Chamath said in June 2022 that “the bottom doesn’t happen for another 18 months,” which would point to roughly late 2023. In reality, the low occurred about 4 months after his comment, and the index did not set a lower low in late 2023; there were only corrections within an ongoing bull market.
Overall assessment
- The QT duration part of the call is roughly right (about three years of balance-sheet runoff).
- The core market-timing claim—that the equity bear-market bottom was still ~18 months away—was clearly wrong, as the bottom had already occurred by October 2022 and has held for several years.
Because the prediction as quoted explicitly ties the drawn‑out QT process to an equity bottom “another 18 months” out, and that key timing element failed, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong, despite being directionally accurate on the length of QT.