Chamath’s claim was that as 7–9 big streaming competitors ramped spend, “all of those returns will now get spread across seven or 8 or 9 competitors…Netflix can’t win the way that they used to.” Evaluated by late 2025, the evidence points the opposite way on economic returns.

1. Netflix still clearly leads in scale and usage.

   • Netflix surpassed 300M global subscribers by the end of 2024 and remains the largest subscription video service; Disney’s services (Disney+ and Hulu) and Max are materially smaller in aggregate, even though they’ve grown. (forbes.com)

2. Profit pool is not widely shared; Netflix captures the bulk of it.

   • Netflix’s revenue grew ~16% YoY in Q2 2025 to over $11B, and it raised its 2025 operating‑margin target to roughly 29–30%, an extremely high margin for a media business. (tvtechnology.com)
   • Analyses repeatedly describe Netflix as the only consistently profitable major streamer; rivals are only recently breaking even or earning low single‑digit margins. (tvrev.com)
   • Disney’s streaming segment only turned modest profit in 2024–2025, with full‑year 2024 streaming profit of just $134M and much lower margins than Netflix (around 5% vs. Netflix near 30%). (thewrap.com)
   • Other big services remain structurally weaker: Apple TV+ is still reportedly losing about $1B per year, and Paramount+ sits inside a parent company posting overall losses and cost‑cutting/layoffs. (thetimes.co.uk)
   • This is the opposite of “all of those returns” being spread evenly; most of the durable profit pool still accrues to Netflix.

3. Market verdict: Netflix is again viewed as the dominant winner.

   • Netflix’s share price has massively outperformed over the last several years, enough that the company executed a 10‑for‑1 stock split in November 2025 after trading above $1,100 per share; its market cap (~$450B+) now exceeds that of Disney, Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery combined in some analyses. (reuters.com)
   • A 2025 upgrade from Loop Capital explicitly argued that “Netflix has won the streaming wars” on the back of its leading share of TV viewing and the largest content budget. (barrons.com)
   • Even Disney’s CEO Bob Iger has publicly called Netflix “the gold standard” in streaming and says Disney is building Netflix‑like economics, underscoring that Netflix’s business model and profitability remain the benchmark rather than one peer among many equals. (aol.com)

4. Competition is broader, but hasn’t prevented Netflix from “winning.”

   • Netflix’s share of original‑content supply and demand has declined as more services launched, showing that viewing time and catalog share are more distributed than in 2015–2019. (linkedin.com)
   • However, that broader competition has not translated into evenly distributed financial returns; Netflix remains the dominant profit generator and stock‑market winner in subscription streaming.

Because the central part of Chamath’s prediction was about Netflix losing its ability to win economically as returns were spread across many peers, and current data show Netflix still enjoying by far the strongest margins, profits, and investor returns in streaming, the prediction is best classified as wrong.