Chamath framed his view as a short‑term “melt‑up,” saying that after the March 2022 rebound he expected markets to have constructive dynamics for roughly the next month to two months and that from there markets were “probably” headed up. ⁠(dailyhodl.com) Using the S&P 500 as a broad proxy for “the stock market,” the index closed at 4,463 on March 18, 2022 (the last trading day before the March 19 episode), rose modestly over the next two weeks, but then fell below that level: it was down to 4,393 by April 15 and 4,131 by April 29, and further to 3,901 by May 20. ⁠(fedprimerate.com) Over the 1–2 month window he specified, the net direction of the market was clearly downward rather than upward, so the prediction did not come true.