The condition on which Chamath based the prediction — no major nuclear-type escalation in the Russia–Ukraine war — was met: multiple later retrospectives note that, despite frequent nuclear rhetoric and drills, no nuclear weapons have been used in Ukraine as of 2025.(nationalsecurityjournal.org)

However, U.S. equity markets did not show “really constructive dynamics” for the following 1.5–2 months (roughly late March through mid‑/late‑May 2022):

• The episode aired March 19, 2022. Around that time, Chamath argued for a near‑term market “melt up” due to reduced uncertainty and a potential peace framework, implying a constructive rally ahead.(allinpodcastsummary.com)
• The S&P 500 did rally into late March (March 2022 return +3.8%), with the index rising from 4,463.12 on March 18 to 4,530.41 on March 31.(statmuse.com)
• But in April 2022, markets reversed sharply: the S&P 500 fell about 8.7–9% for the month, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged about 13.5%, one of its worst months and leaving the Nasdaq in bear‑market territory.(statmuse.com)
• Through May 2022, conditions remained stressed. The Nasdaq was down another ~2% for May, and the S&P 500’s intraday decline from its January high briefly exceeded 20% on May 20, leading major outlets to describe it as flirting with a bear market before a late‑day bounce.(statmuse.com)

Given that the next 1.5–2 months after the March 19 episode were dominated by large drawdowns, extreme volatility, and a near‑bear‑market move, rather than a sustained “constructive” or melt‑up environment, the prediction about market dynamics over that window did not come true.