What was predicted
Chamath suggested that in 2H 2022: (1) U.S. inflation would start to be tamed, and (2) the economy was strong enough that Fed funds around ~2–2.5% would both be sustainable and consistent with strong GDP growth (i.e., that this sort of rate level would be enough while the economy still grew well).

What actually happened

1. Inflation path in 2H 2022

   • CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% year‑over‑year in June 2022.(cnbc.com)
   • From that peak it did start to fall in the second half of 2022: by December 2022 the annual CPI rate was 6.5%, with month‑to‑month changes much smaller and even slightly negative in December.(usinflationcalculator.com)
     So it is fair to say inflation began to come off the boil in 2H 2022, though it was still far from the Fed’s 2% goal and remained “elevated” by policymakers’ own description.

2. Interest rates versus that inflation

   • On July 27, 2022 the Fed raised the federal funds target range to 2.25–2.50%.(cnbc.com)
   • Less than two months later, on September 21, 2022, it hiked again to 3.00–3.25%, explicitly noting that inflation “remains elevated” and that further increases were expected.(federalreserve.gov)
   • By December 2022, the target range was 4.25–4.50%, and the Fed signaled it would keep rates high through 2023.(cnbc.com)
   • Through 2023 the effective federal funds rate was around 5.3% at its peak, before beginning to be cut in late 2024–2025.(modigin.com)

   This shows that 2–2.5% was nowhere near sufficient to control inflation in practice. The Fed rapidly moved rates well above that range and had to hold them there for an extended period while inflation gradually returned closer to target.

3. Economic growth and strength

   • Real GDP fell in Q1 and Q2 2022 (‑1.6% and ‑0.6% annualized), but then rebounded: real GDP grew 3.2% in Q3 2022 and about 2.6–2.7% in Q4 2022 (annualized).(apps.bea.gov)
   • For the full year 2022, real GDP grew 2.1%; from Q4 2021 to Q4 2022 it rose about 0.9–1.0%.(bea.gov)
   • Growth remained solid in subsequent years: BEA data show real GDP growth of about 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024, even while the Fed funds rate was around 5% for much of that period.(bea.gov)

   So the “economy is still quite strong” part was broadly right: the U.S. economy handled not only 2–2.5% rates, but much higher rates without falling into a deep recession.

Why the prediction is graded as wrong

• The crucial forward‑looking claim wasn’t just that growth would be OK; it was that inflation would start to be tamed in 2H 2022 and that the U.S. could “actually support 2–2.5% interest rates and still actually grow really well” — implying a world where that kind of rate level would be sufficient to bring inflation under control while growth stayed strong.
• In reality, inflation did start to decelerate in 2H 2022, but it remained very high (6–8% y/y) during that period, and the Fed concluded it needed to push rates far above 2–2.5% (into the 4–5%+ range) and hold them there for a prolonged period to make real progress toward its 2% target.(bls.gov)
• The economy did prove strong enough to grow with much higher rates, which contradicts the implicit notion that something like 2–2.5% was the tough but sufficient level the economy had to bear.

Because the central, actionable part of the call — that bringing inflation under control would involve and be compatible with Fed funds around 2–2.5% — was clearly falsified by subsequent events, the overall prediction is best judged wrong, despite getting the broad direction of inflation (down) and growth (still positive) roughly right.