Chamath’s call was for a 1.5–2 month “melt up” in broad equities starting mid‑March 2022, conditional on no major escalation in the Russia‑Ukraine war (e.g., nuclear or clear chemical-weapons shock).

What actually happened:

• The S&P 500 did rally strongly in the second half of March 2022, finishing the month up about 3.8% overall.(statmuse.com)
• But in April 2022 the S&P 500 fell about 8.9%, its worst month since March 2020; the Nasdaq dropped roughly 13.3% in the same month, also its worst since the financial crisis.(statmuse.com)
• From the S&P 500 close on March 18, 2022 (about 4,463) to May 3, 2022 (about 4,175), the index was down roughly 6%, and by May 19, 2022 it had fallen to about 3,901, more than 12% below the March 18 level and flirting with bear‑market territory.(statmuse.com)
• Major commentary at the time described April as a brutal month for stocks driven by aggressive Fed tightening and recession fears, not as a sustained melt‑up.(axios.com)

On the conditional clause (no major escalation in the war): during that 1.5–2 month window, there were unconfirmed or disputed reports of possible chemical‑weapon use in Mariupol, which Western officials said they were urgently investigating, but experts and officials stressed that the evidence was inconclusive at the time.(cnbc.com) There was no widely recognized nuclear or clearly verified large‑scale chemical attack that triggered a discrete "shock" event of the sort he highlighted.

Putting it together: the war condition he specified was effectively met, yet instead of a sustained 1.5–2 month melt‑up, U.S. (and broader) equities experienced a sharp downturn, with April 2022 one of the worst months for the S&P 500 since the pandemic crash. That makes this prediction wrong.