Using prices near the time of the prediction (Feb 28, 2022) as a starting point and the latest available prices, cumulative stock returns are approximately:

• Alphabet (GOOGL): 134.13 → 291.22, about +117% (statmuse.com)
• Microsoft (MSFT): 289.70 → 472.12, about +63% (statmuse.com)
• Amazon (AMZN): 153.56 → 232.93, about +52% (statmuse.com)
• Meta (META): 209.74 → 632.26, about +201% (statmuse.com)
• Netflix (NFLX): 39.45 → 109.98, about +179% (statmuse.com)
• Apple (AAPL): 162.09 → 233.33, about +44% (statmuse.com)

From early 2022 to late 2025, Microsoft and Alphabet did outperform Amazon and Apple, but they were clearly not the best performers: Meta and Netflix both delivered much larger gains than either Microsoft or Alphabet.

Chamath’s claim that Microsoft and Google would be “far and away the winners” among this large‑cap tech group therefore hasn’t held up on the core metric most people would infer—relative stock performance over the subsequent several years. While Microsoft and Alphabet remain fundamentally strong businesses (e.g., leading roles in cloud and AI) (barrons.com), that strength did not translate into clear, dominant stock outperformance versus Meta and Netflix over this period.

Because multiple peers have materially outperformed them since the prediction, the specific assertion that MSFT and GOOGL would be the clear, standout winners is best scored as wrong given the data so far.