Available data show that major energy prices, especially crude oil and gasoline, stayed well above their pre‑pandemic levels for several years after early 2022, matching Chamath’s qualitative call for “sustained” high energy prices rather than a quick snap‑back.

Crude oil (Brent): The average Brent price in 2019 (a good pre‑COVID baseline) was about $64/bbl. From there it jumped to about $101/bbl in 2022, then eased only to ~$82/bbl in 2023, ~$81/bbl in 2024, and a still‑elevated ~$72/bbl in 2025 (year‑to‑date estimate)—all materially higher than 2019.(scribd.com) That’s a multi‑year period (2022–2024, and much of 2025) of oil prices remaining significantly above pre‑pandemic norms, not a rapid reversion.

Gasoline: U.S. retail gasoline prices show the same pattern. The pre‑pandemic 2019 average was about $2.60–2.70/gal. In 2022 they spiked to roughly $3.95–4.09/gal, then only gradually declined to about $3.5–3.7/gal in 2023 and around $3.4–3.5/gal in 2024, still well above 2019 levels.(statistico.com) Again, this is a sustained period of elevated prices relative to pre‑COVID.

Natural gas as a partial exception: U.S. Henry Hub natural gas did not stay elevated as long. Its annual average jumped from $2.56/mmBtu in 2019 to $6.45 in 2022, but then fell back to ~$2.5 in 2023 and ~$2.2 in 2024, essentially returning to or below pre‑pandemic levels by 2023.(fred.stlouisfed.org) So not all energy commodities remained high for as long.

However, the core of the prediction was that we would see sustained high energy prices after early 2022 instead of a quick collapse back to pre‑pandemic levels. For the dominant energy benchmark (crude oil) and for end‑consumer fuel costs (gasoline), that is exactly what happened: prices stayed structurally higher for several years before easing. Despite natural gas reverting more quickly, the overall call about “sustained energy prices” was broadly accurate.