Friedberg @ 00:58:44Right
economy
The rise in energy prices seen in early 2022 is not the start of a permanent long‑term uptrend; prices will be pushed higher temporarily by geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia‑Ukraine), but that strength will only last for a limited period (on the order of months, not many years).
I don't think this is a long term trend... I do think that some of this global tension stuff we're seeing is only going to drive it up for a while.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence from 2022–2025 suggests the early‑2022 energy price spike was sharp but not the beginning of a sustained multi‑year uptrend, matching Friedberg’s core claim.
Key data points:
- Oil (Brent crude): Brent started 2022 in the $80s and spiked to around $120–130 per barrel in early March 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.(insee.fr) The EIA’s March 2022 outlook already anticipated an average of ~$117 in March and ~$102 in 2H 2022 with a decline to ~$89 in 2023.(rigzone.com) By late 2025, Brent is around $63 per barrel, more than 40% below the 2022 spike, with prices trending down since mid‑2024.(tradingeconomics.com)
- Natural gas (Europe): EU TTF gas hit an all‑time high of 345 EUR/MWh in March 2022.(tradingeconomics.com) By November 2025 it trades near 29 EUR/MWh, roughly one‑tenth of the peak, and recent analysis notes subdued gas prices through 2024–2025 as supply and storage improved.(tradingeconomics.com)
- Global energy indices: The World Bank and Statista document that global energy prices (oil, gas, coal) surged into 2022 but that the fuel energy price index later declined, with the July 2025 level well below the wartime extremes; the earlier run‑up is explicitly linked to the Russia‑Ukraine shock.(blogs.worldbank.org)
- U.S. gasoline: Average U.S. retail gasoline prices rose to $4.09/gal in 2022 but then fell to $3.66 in 2023, $3.45 in 2024, and about $3.29 in 2025, essentially back near 2021 levels in real terms.(officialdata.org)
- Forward outlook: EIA and major banks now forecast continued downward or flat pressure on oil prices, with Brent expected around the low‑ to mid‑$50s–$60s in 2026–2027, not an ongoing structural uptrend.(eia.gov)
Interpretation: The 2022 shock created a temporary spike driven largely by geopolitical tensions, especially Russia–Ukraine, but prices subsequently retreated over the following 1–3 years and are forecast to remain moderate or fall further. That is consistent with Friedberg’s main prediction that this would not inaugurate a permanent long‑term bull market in energy, even if "months" arguably understated how long elevated prices would linger. Overall, the prediction is substantially correct.