Chamath’s claim was that semiconductor-related supply constraints for companies like Apple and Tesla would be “reasonably well managed” and would ease substantially by Q4 2022 and into Q1 2023, reducing chip-driven supply-chain pressure in that window.

Apple

• Through 2021 and early 2022, Apple repeatedly described industry‑wide silicon shortages as its top operational issue, costing billions in lost sales and constraining products like iPad.(gurufocus.com)
• By the December 2022 quarter (fiscal Q1 2023), Apple’s iPad revenue was up 30% year‑over‑year partly because the prior year had faced “significant supply constraints,” whereas in the current quarter “we had enough supply to meet demand.”(barchart.com) This is a direct indication that chip‑related constraints on at least one previously constrained product line had eased.
• On the Feb 2, 2023 Q1 2023 earnings call, Tim Cook said that after Covid disruptions in November–December, Apple was “now at a point where production is what we need it to be” and that “the problem is behind us,” explicitly after referencing the prior three years of Covid and “silicon shortages.” He added that for the March 2023 quarter Apple was “in decent supply on most products.”(roic.ai)
  → This shows that by Q1 2023 Apple regarded the earlier silicon‑shortage constraints as largely resolved and supply generally adequate, i.e., chip‑related pressure had eased substantially.

Tesla

• In 2021, Elon Musk called that year a “supply chain nightmare,” highlighting semiconductors as a serious constraint, but by Q3 2022 the earnings call focused primarily on logistics bottlenecks (shipping and trucking capacity) and ramp costs in new factories (Berlin and Austin). Management said they were on track for ~50% production growth while merely “tracking supply chain risks,” with no emphasis that chips were the limiting factor.(fool.com)
• On the Jan 25, 2023 Q4 2022 earnings call, Tesla attributed margin pressure mainly to raw‑material inflation (especially lithium), ramp inefficiencies in new plants, and product mix; they also spoke about unwinding cost increases from “multiple years of COVID‑related instability” as the world moved toward a more deflationary environment. Again, semiconductors were not singled out as an ongoing production bottleneck.(news.alphastreet.com)
• In the Q1 2023 call, Tesla emphasized cost reductions in logistics and commodities and discussed being at the “maximum of pain” on commodity costs, while praising the supply-chain team for taking advantage of falling logistics rates. There was still no description of chip availability as a primary constraint, suggesting that by early 2023 the main pressures had shifted away from semiconductors.(rev.com)

Industry context

• The 2020–2023 global chip shortage hit autos and electronics hard, but by late 2022 several large chipmakers reported that demand had weakened and supply constraints were easing, leading to elevated inventories. Qualcomm’s Q4 2022 commentary explicitly mentioned “easing of supply constraints across the semiconductor industry” and weeks of excess inventory in the channel.(fool.com)
• Apple’s major assembler Foxconn had already said in February 2022 that it expected a “major improvement” in parts shortages in Q1 2022 and that “overall supply constraints” would ease in the second half of 2022, a trajectory that aligns with the subsequent industry and Apple commentary.(macdailynews.com)

Assessment By Q4 2022 and especially Q1 2023:

• Apple was publicly stating that the prior supply/silicon problems were “behind” them and that they were in good supply on most products, after earlier being heavily constrained.(roic.ai)
• Tesla’s main headwinds had shifted to logistics, factory ramp inefficiencies, and input‑cost inflation, with no ongoing focus on semiconductor shortages as a binding constraint.(fool.com)
• Industry‑wide, the semiconductor environment had clearly transitioned from acute shortage toward easing constraints and even oversupply in some segments.

Taken together, this fits Chamath’s normalized prediction that chip-related supply constraints for large players like Apple and Tesla would substantially ease by Q4 2022–Q1 2023. The remaining issues were largely non‑chip factors (Covid assembly disruptions, logistics, lithium prices, macro demand). Hence, the prediction is right in both timing and direction.