Friedberg @ 00:56:38Right
techai
Virtual reality headsets such as Oculus Quest will not replace traditional 2D computing as the dominant general-purpose computing modality; instead, over the coming years they will remain a niche entertainment device category similar in role to a Nintendo Switch.
Have you guys used the Oculus Quest device?... there may it may end up becoming kind of a niche entertainment device, almost like a Nintendo Switch, where there's a, you know, a mode when you're using it. But I'm not sure it replaces traditional static, two dimensional computing in front of you. The jury's still out. I don't see like, a computer sentiment that says these things will ultimately prevail over the current, um, mode.View on YouTube
Explanation
Evidence as of late 2025 indicates that standalone VR headsets (including Meta Quest / Oculus) have not replaced traditional 2D computing (PCs, laptops, phones) as the dominant general‑purpose modality, and instead remain largely a gaming / entertainment and specialized-use category—consistent with Friedberg’s prediction.
1. Market size vs. mainstream 2D computing
- Global PC shipments in 2024 were on the order of 260–270 million units; smartphone shipments were around 1.2–1.3 billion units annually, continuing to dwarf VR hardware volumes.
- Industry reports put annual VR headset shipments in the low tens of millions at most, with Meta the clear leader but still orders of magnitude smaller than phones and PCs. Even in optimistic forecasts, VR/AR is projected to be a fraction of overall computing devices through the mid‑2020s.
2. Dominant uses of VR: gaming, entertainment, and niche professional cases
- Meta’s own positioning of the Quest line highlights gaming, fitness, social experiences, and media consumption as the primary use cases; productivity and general-purpose computing are secondary, experimental, or limited by comfort/UI constraints.
- While there are notable enterprise/professional deployments (training, simulation, design, collaboration), these are specialized verticals and do not displace laptops/monitors as the main daily computing environment for most workers.
3. VR has not become the default general-purpose computing environment
- The typical day-to-day workflows for knowledge workers, students, and consumers in 2023–2025 remain centered on laptops/desktops with 2D monitors and smartphones. Office suites, web browsing, coding, design, messaging, and social media are overwhelmingly done on 2D displays.
- Even where VR productivity apps exist (virtual desktops, 3D workspaces), adoption is a small niche relative to traditional setups, and there is no evidence of a broad shift where people spend the majority of their computing hours inside a headset.
4. Matches the substance of the prediction
- Friedberg’s claim had two parts:
- Headsets would not replace traditional 2D computing as the dominant modality over the coming years.
- They would instead be more like a niche entertainment device (Nintendo Switch–like).
- As of November 2025, both appear accurate: VR is still peripheral to mainstream computing and primarily used for entertainment/gaming plus specific professional niches, not as the universal replacement for monitors, laptops, or phones.
Given that more than three years have passed since the 2022 prediction and the computing landscape still fits his description, the prediction is best classified as right.