Evidence from mid‑to‑late 2022 shows many companies that relied on stressed supply chains reporting revenue misses or shortfalls with a lag relative to when their supply problems began, matching Friedberg’s prediction that “you don't actually see the revenue shortfall for a couple of quarters after the supply chain problems hit them.”

Some concrete examples:

• Ciena (optical networking) – In February 2022 Ciena slashed its fiscal Q1 2022 revenue guidance, explicitly citing later‑than‑expected delivery of key components and manufacturing disruptions. Management framed this as supply‑chain issues affecting their ability to ship product before quarter‑end, causing a revenue shortfall despite strong demand, and warned that component lead times would remain problematic through 2022.(fierce-network.com) This is an early case of exactly what Friedberg described: operational issues show up first, then missed revenue in reported results.

• Cisco (networking hardware) – For its fiscal Q3 2022 (reported May 18, 2022), Cisco missed revenue expectations and guided to an unexpected sales decline, while its CEO highlighted supply‑chain shortages and logistics constraints (including China lockdowns and port capacity limits) as major drivers.(cnbc.com) Cisco is emblematic of a company highly dependent on complex global supply chains whose revenue shortfall materialized after months of already‑known component shortages.

• Industrial equipment / warehouse automation (KION Group, Supply Chain Solutions segment) – KION’s 2022 Q1–Q3 report shows its Supply Chain Solutions segment swinging from strong profitability in 2021 to an adjusted EBIT loss in 2022, as supply‑chain disruptions reduced availability of key parts, caused project delays, and pushed up costs on long‑term fixed‑price contracts.(reports.kiongroup.com) Management notes that price‑adjustment clauses were only added to new contracts from mid‑Q2 2022, meaning disruptions and cost increases that started earlier in the cycle hit revenue and margins with a lag in 2022.

• Consumer goods examples in Q3 2022
  • Reed’s (beverages) reported that Q3 2022 net sales fell from $13.4M to $12.1M YoY primarily because delayed shipment of specific bottles shifted $3.8M of net sales out of the quarter.(globenewswire.com) That is a literal revenue shortfall from supply‑chain timing.
  • International Breweries’ Q3 2022 results show volume declines and a larger loss despite revenue growth, with management explicitly blaming ongoing supply‑chain constraints and inflation pressures for reduced volumes and profitability in the quarter.(nairametrics.com)

• Semiconductor and electronics supply chains feeding into a later revenue dip – A 2024 SEC filing from a semiconductor company describes the industry‑wide pattern: severe chip shortages through 2021 and the first half of 2022 led customers to over‑order and stockpile inventory; once shortages eased in the second half of 2022, those customers significantly decreased their ordering levels, leading to sequential revenue declines from Q4 2022 through mid‑2023.(sec.gov) This is exactly the dynamic Friedberg anticipated: earlier supply‑chain stress followed by revenue softness several quarters later.

• Macro survey data – The National Association of Manufacturers’ Q3 2022 survey found 78.3% of manufacturers listed supply‑chain disruptions as a primary business challenge, and more than half said inflation and higher input costs were making it harder to compete and remain profitable.(nam.org) This supports the idea that, across a wide swath of supply‑chain‑dependent firms, the financial impact of earlier disruptions was playing out in 2022 earnings.

While not every company in every sector missed revenue, the pattern Friedberg described—companies that rely heavily on disrupted supply chains eventually reporting noticeable revenue or order shortfalls 2–4 quarters after the operational problems—shows up repeatedly across networking hardware, industrial automation, consumer products, and semiconductors in mid‑to‑late 2022 and into early 2023. Given the breadth and timing of these cases, the prediction is best judged as right.