Evidence suggests Chamath’s directional and timing call — that the acute, pandemic-era supply‑chain and CapEx disruptions hitting firms like Apple and Tesla would be largely worked out by early 2023 — was substantially correct, though his “6–9 month” phrasing was somewhat optimistic.

Key points:

• Global supply-chain stress metrics: The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) peaked at a record level in December 2021 and stayed very elevated through most of 2022, only gradually easing in the second half of 2022. By early 2023 it had dropped back toward, and then below, its historical average; by May 2023 it reached a record low, indicating that the bottlenecks that had driven the crisis were largely resolved. (ycharts.com) A later Reuters summary explicitly notes that supply-chain problems “plummeted before disappearing entirely in February 2023” according to the New York Fed’s measure. (reuters.com) This lines up closely with his “done by early 2023” expectation, even if the 6–9 month window from January 2022 (mid–late 2022) was too aggressive.

• Apple specifically: Apple suffered major iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max shortages in November–December 2022 due to COVID‑related disruptions at its main Chinese assembly plant, enough that Apple issued a rare warning and then missed its Q1 2023 (holiday quarter) revenue expectations, citing supply constraints. (news.alphastreet.com) However, on the February 2, 2023 earnings call, Apple stated that “production is now back where we want it to be,” and that the December-quarter miss was principally due to those temporary constraints. (news.alphastreet.com) That indicates that by early 2023 Apple’s acute supply-chain problems from the pandemic era had largely been worked through.

• Tesla specifically: Tesla’s Q3 2022 update still described “logistics volatility and supply chain bottlenecks” as challenges, but already noted they were improving and that the main medium‑term constraint would be battery supply rather than generalized logistical chaos. (teslanorth.com) By March 25, 2023, its Berlin factory had ramped to 5,000 vehicles per week, and Tesla’s 2023 deliveries rose 38% over 2022 to 1.8 million vehicles, consistent with capacity and supply chains having normalized enough to support large-scale growth. (en.wikipedia.org) While Tesla continued to face cost and raw‑material issues, the systemic, pandemic-style bottlenecks Chamath was talking about had largely eased by early 2023.

• Semiconductors and the broader crisis: The separate global chip shortage that had severely constrained autos and electronics from 2020 onward is generally described as a 2020–2023 phenomenon; by 2023 the shortage had “mostly subsided” and global car production had begun to recover. (en.wikipedia.org) Likewise, the broader “2021–2023 global supply chain crisis” is dated as such, with conditions improving after 2023 even if some residual stresses persisted or re-emerged for other reasons (e.g., later geopolitical events). (en.wikipedia.org)

Putting this together: global indicators and company disclosures show that pandemic‑era supply‑chain disruptions did remain significant through most of 2022 (so a strict 6–9 month resolution from January 2022 was too optimistic), but they were substantially resolved and largely normalized by early 2023, in line with the Apple/Tesla guidance he referenced. On balance, that makes the core of his prediction — that these disruptions would not drag on for many years and would be mostly worked out by early 2023 — substantially correct.