As of November 30, 2025, the United States and Russia have not gone to war directly over Ukraine. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the U.S. has provided extensive military and financial aid to Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia, but there has been no declared war or direct U.S.–Russia military conflict (e.g., U.S. and Russian forces openly fighting each other). This is consistently described in reporting as a Russian–Ukrainian war with Western support to Ukraine, not a U.S.–Russia war.

Because Chamath’s prediction is conditional (if the U.S. and Russia go to war over Ukraine, then global equity markets will effectively go to zero / experience a depression-level crash), and the condition has not occurred, we cannot evaluate whether his claimed market reaction would have happened. The fact that global equity markets did not go to zero after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is not directly relevant to the prediction as normalized here, since that invasion did not satisfy the stated condition of a direct U.S.–Russia war.

Therefore the correct status is inconclusive: the antecedent of the conditional prediction has not happened yet, so the truth of the prediction cannot be determined.