The prediction was that during the post‑March‑2022 tightening cycle it would be very hard for the Fed to avoid triggering a U.S. recession before inflation was brought under control. In reality, the Fed raised the federal funds rate from near 0% to about 5.25–5.50% between March 2022 and July 2023, a historically sharp tightening. Inflation then fell steeply from its 2022 peak (e.g., PCE inflation dropping from around 7% in mid‑2022 to about 2.6% by December 2023, with projections and later data putting inflation in the 2–3% range through 2024) while GDP growth stayed positive and unemployment remained relatively low. (congress.gov) Multiple mainstream analyses describe this episode as a rare soft landing or even “immaculate disinflation” — a return of inflation toward target without a recession or major spike in unemployment. (en.wikipedia.org) As of late 2025, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee has not declared any U.S. recession after the brief 2020 downturn, and the Fed’s recession‑indicator series (USRECQP) remains at 0 through at least Q3 2025, meaning no officially dated recession has followed the 2022 tightening so far. (nber.org) While some economists argue the economy may be slipping toward recession in 2025, even those discussions occur after inflation had already largely been reduced toward the Fed’s goal. (ft.com) Ex post, the feared recession triggered by the rate hikes before inflation was controlled has not (at least yet) occurred, so the substantive thrust of the prediction is best classified as wrong.