ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:57:55Right
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As of October 2021, Facebook (now Meta) has a 0% chance of successfully launching a really compelling crypto project in the future, i.e., it will not land a major, successful crypto initiative going forward.
What do you think the chances are that Facebook now can land a really compelling crypto project? Right. In my opinion... It's zero.View on YouTube
Explanation

Evidence since October 2021 shows Meta has not managed to launch and sustain a major, successful crypto initiative:

  1. Diem (Libra) was formally shut down. In January–February 2022 the Diem Association announced it was selling its assets/technology to Silvergate and would wind down operations, ending Meta’s long‑running stablecoin effort without a public launch or user adoption. (coindesk.com)

  2. Novi, Meta’s crypto wallet, was ended. Novi ran only as a small pilot and never reached broad consumer scale; Meta announced it would shut down the wallet on September 1, 2022, telling users to withdraw balances and discontinuing both the standalone app and WhatsApp integration. (engadget.com) This is not consistent with a “really compelling” or majorly successful crypto product.

  3. NFT / “digital collectibles” features were short‑lived and also shut down. Meta launched NFT support (“digital collectibles”) on Instagram and Facebook in 2022, allowing wallet connections and NFT display/minting. (about.fb.com) By March–April 2023 Meta announced it was winding down these NFT features across both platforms, with support ending after less than a year and existing posts losing blockchain metadata. (coindesk.com) Again, this does not match a durable, large‑scale success.

  4. Current efforts are exploratory, not launched successes. As of 2025, reports indicate Meta is only exploring integrations of third‑party stablecoins like USDC/USDT for creator payouts and small payments, holding preliminary talks with infrastructure partners and regulators. (timesofindia.indiatimes.com) There is no evidence yet of a widely adopted, standout crypto product in production.

Across more than four years since the October 2021 prediction, every notable Meta crypto initiative (Diem, Novi, NFTs) has been canceled or wound down, and no new major, clearly successful crypto project has replaced them. While Meta could still succeed in crypto in the more distant future, as of late 2025 Chamath’s claim that Facebook/Meta would not land a really compelling, major crypto project has been borne out by events, so the prediction is best scored as right on the available record.