Evidence as of 2025 shows that SARS‑CoV‑2 has indeed become an endemic virus in the United States and that case counts have never fallen to zero nationwide since 2021.

1. Persistent circulation and endemic status

   • Major public‑health authorities (e.g., CDC, WHO) now describe COVID‑19 as a virus that will continue to circulate long‑term, similar to influenza and other respiratory viruses, rather than something that can be eradicated. This is reflected in guidance about ongoing vaccination campaigns, fall/winter booster recommendations, and surveillance programs which all assume continued transmission for the foreseeable future.

2. Cases have not gone to zero

   • U.S. surveillance data show continuing COVID‑19 cases and hospitalizations every year since 2021, with clearly documented waves in late 2021 (Delta/Omicron), 2022, 2023, and beyond. Publicly available dashboards and data aggregators based on CDC reporting show no period where U.S. national case counts dropped to zero; instead, they fluctuate but remain above zero at all times.

3. Timeline vs. prediction

   • The prediction was made in April 2021 and stated that “we are going to have Covid in the United States for years to come” and that it “is not going to go to zero.”
   • As of late 2025 (more than four years later), SARS‑CoV‑2 is still circulating in the U.S. at non‑zero levels, matching both parts of the prediction: multi‑year persistence and no eradication.

Given the sustained endemic circulation and the absence of any zero‑case period at the national level, Friedberg’s prediction is right.