despite all of that, by the time we actually get around to the recall, which will be in about 5 or 6 months, uh, the recall election, you know, the economy is going to be booming again. COVID's going to be over. People will probably forget.View on YouTube
Assessing the three main components of Sacks’s prediction against what actually happened by the California recall election on September 14, 2021:
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"The economy is going to be booming again"
At the national level, this was broadly accurate.- Real U.S. GDP grew about 5.9–6.2% in 2021, the fastest annual growth since the mid‑1980s, reflecting a strong post‑COVID rebound. (en.wikipedia.org)
- The unemployment rate fell from 6.1% in April 2021 to 4.8% by September 2021, a steep improvement, even though the September jobs report (194,000 jobs added vs. ~500,000 expected) disappointed forecasters. (bls.gov)
Overall, many economists and officials described the 2021 recovery as very strong; calling the economy “booming” is defensible.
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"COVID's going to be over" (as an issue by the recall)
This was clearly false.- The Delta variant wave peaked in mid‑September 2021, with around 127,000 new U.S. cases per day, and hospitals across the country were again in crisis conditions. (en.wikipedia.org)
- By mid‑September, the U.S. had surpassed 40 million cases and more than 675,000 deaths, exceeding estimated U.S. deaths from the 1918 flu; by early October, deaths passed 700,000. (en.wikipedia.org)
- In the California recall exit polls, roughly one‑third of voters said the ongoing COVID‑19 pandemic was the most important issue facing the state—the single top concern—indicating COVID was very much not “over” as a major political or public concern. (cbsnews.com)
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"People will probably forget" Newsom’s earlier vaccine/ COVID missteps
Partly but not fully accurate; voters didn’t forget the pandemic, but earlier anger over vaccine rollout largely faded.- Early 2021 polling (e.g., Berkeley IGS in February) found strong dissatisfaction with Newsom’s handling of COVID and especially vaccine distribution—only about 22–29% rated vaccine rollout as good or excellent, and his pandemic handling was widely criticized. (calmatters.org)
- By September 2021, however, a PPIC survey cited in CNBC found that over three‑quarters of Californians thought the state government was doing an “excellent or good” job distributing COVID vaccines, and roughly 6 in 10 approved of Newsom’s overall pandemic response. (cnbc.com)
- High‑vaccination counties voted strongly to keep Newsom, and analyses of the recall emphasized that his pro‑vaccine, pro‑mandate stance had become a political asset, not a liability; Newsom explicitly framed his victory as a mandate for his COVID and vaccination policies. (cnbc.com)
So, while voters absolutely had not “forgotten” COVID—the issue was front and center in their minds—they had largely moved past or forgiven the earlier vaccine‑rollout problems by the time of the recall.
Overall judgment
- The economic part of the prediction was broadly right.
- The central claim that “COVID’s going to be over” and thus no longer a major issue was decisively wrong: the Delta surge was peaking, and COVID was the top issue in California’s recall. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Voters didn’t forget the pandemic; instead, they ended up largely approving of Newsom’s later COVID/vaccine policies and kept him in office.
Because the most consequential part of the scenario—COVID being effectively “over” as a major issue by the recall—turned out to be incorrect, the overall prediction is best classified as wrong, albeit with some partially correct components about economic recovery and the fading of anger over the initial vaccine rollout.