CDC data show that COVID-19 vaccination coverage in the U.S. rose well beyond the 60–65% ceiling Friedberg anticipated.

If we interpret his statement "no more than about 65% of people will choose to get vaccinated" as ever receiving at least one dose (the natural reading of “choose to get vaccinated”):

• By October 7, 2021, 65.1% of the total U.S. population had already received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, reaching the top of his predicted range. (archive.cdc.gov)
• Coverage continued to increase: by March 9, 2022, 76.6% of the total population had received at least one dose. (archive.cdc.gov)
• By August 24, 2022, about 262.6 million people—79.1% of the total U.S. population—had received at least one dose, clearly above 65%. (archive.cdc.gov)
• Survey data from CDC’s 2022 National Health Interview Survey similarly estimate that 79.7% of U.S. adults ≥19 years had ever received at least one COVID-19 shot. (cdc.gov)

Even if we interpret his prediction more narrowly as referring to completion of the initial ("fully vaccinated") primary series, that share also exceeded his upper bound: by August 24, 2022, 67.4% of the total U.S. population was fully vaccinated, above 65%. (archive.cdc.gov)

Since both the "at least one dose" and "fully vaccinated" measures rose materially above 65%, the prediction that U.S. COVID vaccination coverage would top out around 60–65% was wrong.