It’s too early in the 21st century to judge this prediction.

Key facts so far:

• As of 2025, the United States is still the world’s largest economy in nominal GDP, with about $30.5T vs. China’s $19.2T according to IMF-based estimates. China is #2. (avatrade.com)
• In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, China is already the largest single economy, ahead of the U.S., and holds roughly 19–21% of world output vs. about 17–18% for the U.S. (statranker.org) That supports a trend toward greater Chinese economic weight, but not yet clear overall “dominance.”
• Global influence is increasingly bloc-based rather than purely about a single country. Recent analysis argues the world is splitting into a U.S.-centered and a China-centered economic bloc, with the U.S. bloc currently controlling about 68% of global GDP at market prices vs. 26% for the China bloc—implying continued very large U.S.-aligned influence. (ft.com)
• Long-run forecasts are conflicted:
  • Goldman Sachs-style projections expect China to surpass U.S. GDP around the 2030s and remain ahead for part of the century. (worldeconomics.com)
  • Other analyses (Capital Economics, Bloomberg Economics, Lowy Institute) now argue China may never sustainably overtake the U.S. at market exchange rates because of demographics, slowing productivity, and structural headwinds, or that any lead would be small and temporary. (capitaleconomics.com)

Because the prediction concerns the entire 21st century (“the inevitability of the 21st century”), and we are only about a quarter of the way through with major expert disagreement on whether China will ever clearly and durably surpass U.S. economic power, we cannot yet say the forecast is right or wrong. The evidence is mixed and the time horizon has not elapsed, so the outcome remains inconclusive.