Evidence shows that the predicted nickel‑driven doubling of Tesla vehicle prices never occurred.

• The event Chamath referenced did happen. Early in 2021, Russian producer Nornickel temporarily halted production at two of its main mines (Oktyabrsky and Taimyrsky) due to flooding, cutting a significant chunk of global nickel supply.(fr.wikipedia.org) This contributed to concerns about a nickel shortage.

• Even extreme nickel spikes translate to modest battery‑cost changes. The International Energy Agency estimated that doubling lithium or nickel prices would raise battery pack costs by only about 6%, and a simultaneous doubling of both would merely offset expected cost declines from scale—not remotely enough to double the vehicle price.(fortune.com) That already makes the mechanism behind the prediction implausible.

• Tesla prices rose, but by tens of percent, not ~100%. Around the time of the mine flooding, the Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus in the U.S. had a base price of $36,990 in February 2021.(electrek.co) Through a series of 2021 hikes, the same trim moved to about $39,990–$41,990 (roughly 8–13% above its early‑2021 low).(electrek.co) Higher‑end models (Model S/X/Y) also saw increases, but CarsDirect and other trackers show jumps on the order of a few thousand to low tens of thousands of dollars—typically 10–40%—not anywhere close to a doubling.(electrek.co)

• Nickel shock in 2022 caused only small price moves, not a doubling. In March 2022, nickel prices briefly went parabolic on the LME, more than doubling in hours during the nickel crisis tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.(theguardian.com) Tesla’s reaction was incremental: it added about $1,000 to the Model 3 Long Range and Model Y Long Range prices—taking, for example, the Model 3 LR from roughly $50k–$51k, not to $70k+.(insideevs.com) Again, nowhere near a 100% increase.

• Over time, many Tesla prices were cut back, not driven ever‑higher. In 2023 Tesla cut U.S. prices across the lineup by as much as ~20%, with Model 3 and Model Y trims reduced by thousands of dollars; a Model Y Long Range, for instance, dropped from $65,990 to $52,990.(cars.com) As of 2025, a new Model 3 variant in the U.S. is priced around $36,990—comparable to or below its pre‑flood price once you adjust for trims and incentives.(businessinsider.com) That is directionally opposite to the supposed sustained doubling.

• Tesla also reduced its exposure to nickel instead of remaining fully dependent on it. By October 2021 Tesla said it would move all standard‑range Model 3/Y vehicles globally to lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP) packs that contain no nickel or cobalt, in part because of nickel supply and price concerns.(techcrunch.com) In Q1 2022, the company reported that nearly half of the vehicles it produced used LFP batteries with no nickel at all.(cnbc.com) This strategic shift further undercuts the idea that a nickel shortage would—or could—cause Tesla car prices to double.

Given that (1) the Nornickel flooding did occur, but (2) Tesla’s retail vehicle prices never came close to doubling relative to their pre‑flood levels, and (3) the observed nickel price shocks resulted in only modest, and later partially reversed, price adjustments, Chamath’s prediction that “a flood in a nickel mine is going to cause the price of a Tesla to basically double” has clearly not come true.