Chamath was referring to a looming nickel shortage for EV batteries and said that within less than a year there would be a 37–40% deficit of the nickel needed. By late March 2022, available data show:

• In 2021 the global nickel market did move into deficit, but by about 160–170 thousand tonnes versus roughly 2.8 million tonnes of demand (around a 6% shortfall), not 37–40%. (ar2021.nornickel.com)
• For 2022, the International Nickel Study Group and industry analyses later estimated a small surplus, with production exceeding usage by about 100–115 thousand tonnes; again, not a large deficit. (think.ing.com)
• Other compilations of WBMS data likewise show only modest deficits or near-balance in 2022, with refined production and consumption differing by tens of thousands of tonnes, not by more than a third of required volumes. (news.metal.com)
• Forecasts around the time of his comment that did mention a 37% nickel deficit tied that number to 2030 scenarios (about a 2.2 million tonne shortfall by the end of the decade), not to conditions one year out. (forbes.com)
• Subsequent market developments have moved toward oversupply rather than extreme shortage, as rapid capacity growth in Indonesia has created a persistent nickel surplus and driven prices sharply lower. (reuters.com)

Given that no evidence supports anything close to a 37–40% nickel shortfall within a year of March 2021, his timing and magnitude were both off, even though there was a much smaller deficit and a temporary price spike.