Evidence from multiple price sources shows that Chamath’s conditional prediction played out:

• Around the time of the podcast (early November 2025), Bitcoin was hovering just above $100,000; for example, r/Bitcoin’s daily stats list the November 5, 2025 price at about $102,326, implying the $100k level was an active support/psychological area. (reddit.com)
• In the very near term after early November, Bitcoin did break below $100,000 on several occasions. Forbes and Motley Fool/Nasdaq report that on November 4, 2025, BTC dropped roughly 6% in a day and traded around $99,780–$99,076, explicitly noting that it had fallen back under $100,000 for the first time in months.(forbes.com) Other coverage describes additional sub‑$100k prints on November 4–5 driven by liquidations and Fed‑rate concerns.(finance.yahoo.com)
• After this break, the down‑move continued: by November 13–14, Bitcoin had fallen to intraday lows near $96,682–$97,451, roughly 3–4% below the $100,000 mark, with articles framing this as its lowest level in over six months.(forbes.com) The selloff did not immediately exhaust there.
• The decline eventually deepened much further, to the low $80,000s. Reporting on November 21, 2025, notes BTC briefly touching about $80,600–$82,600 before closing the day around $84,500, nearly a 20% drawdown from the $100k level.(nypost.com)
• By late November, coverage repeatedly describes Bitcoin as stabilizing or consolidating in the high‑$80k to low‑$90k range (around $86k–$92k) after that drop, with language about a consolidation phase and price “stabilizing near $88,000.”(m.economictimes.com) That matches the idea that, after the break and further downside, the market found a new equilibrium and began to rebound.

Interpreting the normalized prediction — “after breaking below $100,000, Bitcoin will fall another roughly 5–10% before stabilizing or reversing” — the key factual components are:

1. A decisive break of the $100k psychological barrier in the near term.
2. Additional material downside beyond that level before a stabilization/reversal phase.

Both clearly occurred: BTC fell through $100k multiple times soon after early November 2025, then went well beyond Chamath’s 5–10% downside window (ultimately ~15–20% below $100k at the trough) before later stabilizing in the high‑$80k/low‑$90k band and beginning to recover. While the magnitude of the eventual decline exceeded his 5–10% estimate, the direction and structure of the move — break of $100k followed by further downside and then stabilization — were essentially correct. Hence the prediction is best scored as right rather than wrong or ambiguous.