Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

As of today (November 30, 2025), we are only about one month into the predicted 2–3 month “risk‑off” window and still well before February 2026, when Chamath predicted markets would be “firmly in risk on mode.” That means the full timeline of the forecast (through at least February 2026) has not yet played out, so its ultimate accuracy cannot be judged.

Available data for November 2025 show a mixed picture: some indicators point to improved risk appetite among U.S. equity investors, while others show emerging caution and modest outflows from global equity funds, suggesting neither a clearly entrenched, multi‑month risk‑off phase nor confirmation of the later risk‑on rebound. (spglobal.com)

Because the key test of the prediction is the state of market sentiment by February 2026—which is still in the future—the forecast must be considered too early to call.

As of November 30, 2025, December 2025 has not yet occurred, so OpenAI’s actual December revenue figures are not available. OpenAI is a private company and does not publish real-time monthly revenue data; no credible filings or reports provide actual December 2025 revenue yet.

Public reporting only gives projections that OpenAI’s annualized revenue could reach around $20 billion by the end of 2025, not confirmation that it has already achieved a December 2025 revenue of $1.666 billion or more. For example, Reuters reports that OpenAI anticipates its annualized revenue could reach $20 billion by the end of 2025, and similar expectations are referenced in other financial coverage, but these are forecasts, not realized results. (reuters.com)

The Shortform summary of the specific All-In episode confirms that Chamath indeed claimed OpenAI would end 2025 with a $20 billion forward run rate, matching the normalized prediction you provided. (shortform.com) However, without actual December 2025 revenue data, it is too early to say whether this prediction is right or wrong.

Evidence from multiple price sources shows that Chamath’s conditional prediction played out:

• Around the time of the podcast (early November 2025), Bitcoin was hovering just above $100,000; for example, r/Bitcoin’s daily stats list the November 5, 2025 price at about $102,326, implying the $100k level was an active support/psychological area. (reddit.com)
• In the very near term after early November, Bitcoin did break below $100,000 on several occasions. Forbes and Motley Fool/Nasdaq report that on November 4, 2025, BTC dropped roughly 6% in a day and traded around $99,780–$99,076, explicitly noting that it had fallen back under $100,000 for the first time in months.(forbes.com) Other coverage describes additional sub‑$100k prints on November 4–5 driven by liquidations and Fed‑rate concerns.(finance.yahoo.com)
• After this break, the down‑move continued: by November 13–14, Bitcoin had fallen to intraday lows near $96,682–$97,451, roughly 3–4% below the $100,000 mark, with articles framing this as its lowest level in over six months.(forbes.com) The selloff did not immediately exhaust there.
• The decline eventually deepened much further, to the low $80,000s. Reporting on November 21, 2025, notes BTC briefly touching about $80,600–$82,600 before closing the day around $84,500, nearly a 20% drawdown from the $100k level.(nypost.com)
• By late November, coverage repeatedly describes Bitcoin as stabilizing or consolidating in the high‑$80k to low‑$90k range (around $86k–$92k) after that drop, with language about a consolidation phase and price “stabilizing near $88,000.”(m.economictimes.com) That matches the idea that, after the break and further downside, the market found a new equilibrium and began to rebound.

Interpreting the normalized prediction — “after breaking below $100,000, Bitcoin will fall another roughly 5–10% before stabilizing or reversing” — the key factual components are:

1. A decisive break of the $100k psychological barrier in the near term.
2. Additional material downside beyond that level before a stabilization/reversal phase.

Both clearly occurred: BTC fell through $100k multiple times soon after early November 2025, then went well beyond Chamath’s 5–10% downside window (ultimately ~15–20% below $100k at the trough) before later stabilizing in the high‑$80k/low‑$90k band and beginning to recover. While the magnitude of the eventual decline exceeded his 5–10% estimate, the direction and structure of the move — break of $100k followed by further downside and then stabilization — were essentially correct. Hence the prediction is best scored as right rather than wrong or ambiguous.

The prediction was: when Democrats next control the presidency, House, and Senate simultaneously (a federal trifecta), Senate Democrats will use the nuclear option to abolish the legislative filibuster.

Key facts:

• The last Democratic federal trifecta occurred during the 117th Congress (January 2021–January 2023), when Democrats held the House, controlled the Senate via the vice president’s tie‑breaking vote, and Joe Biden was president. That trifecta ended on January 3, 2023, before this November 7, 2025 podcast episode. (en.wikipedia.org)
• In the 118th Congress (2023–2025), Republicans controlled the House while Democrats (with independents who caucused with them) controlled the Senate and Biden remained president—so there was no Democratic trifecta. (en.wikipedia.org)
• In the current 119th Congress (2025–2027), Republicans control both the House and the Senate, and Donald Trump is president, so the federal government is under unified Republican, not Democratic, control. (en.wikipedia.org)
• As of late 2025, the 60‑vote legislative filibuster is still in place; recent coverage describes it as an ongoing constraint on ordinary legislation, and debates about ending it are framed as a future possibility, not something that has already happened. (politifact.com)

Because there has been no new Democratic federal trifecta after the date of the prediction, the condition that would trigger the test of Sacks’s claim has not yet occurred. We therefore cannot say whether Democrats would, in fact, abolish the filibuster under those future circumstances.

So the prediction remains untested and is too early to judge.

As of 30 November 2025, Democrats do not have unified control of the federal government. Republicans hold the presidency (Donald Trump’s second, non‑consecutive term) and majorities in both the House and the Senate, i.e., a Republican trifecta, in the 119th Congress (2025–2027). (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the prediction is explicitly conditional on whenever Democrats next regain unified control (presidency + House + Senate), and that condition has not yet occurred, there is no way yet to test whether they “will eliminate the filibuster” at that future time.

Furthermore, current reporting shows the legislative filibuster is still in place in the Republican‑controlled Senate, with Majority Leader John Thune stating he lacks the votes to abolish it, despite pressure from President Trump. (nypost.com) This confirms that the rule has not yet been removed, but that still does not say what Democrats would do if and when they next control the presidency and both chambers.

So the prediction is too early to evaluate: the triggering scenario (Democratic trifecta) has not happened, making the outcome of the prediction unknown at this time.

As of late November 2025, the 2028 U.S. election cycle has not yet occurred (the presidential election will be held in November 2028), so we cannot know whether “socialist-aligned Democrats” will win national power within the three-year window described in the prediction. Because the evaluation date precedes the end of the forecast horizon, the prediction’s outcome cannot yet be determined and remains too early to call.

As of November 30, 2025, Zohran Mamdani has been elected but has not yet begun serving as mayor; he is officially the mayor-elect and is scheduled to take office on January 1, 2026. (en.wikipedia.org) Because his term has not started, it is not yet possible to evaluate whether he will fail to implement his major campaign promises or whether New York City will experience the "total, complete, utter chaos" described in the prediction.

As of November 30, 2025, the 2028 U.S. presidential election has not yet taken place. The election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, and is listed as ongoing / future in current references, with only prospective candidates and primary polling discussed, not an actual winner or governing platform. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because the outcome and the eventual winner’s platform are unknown, it is too early to determine whether the prediction about the 2028 winner’s emphasis on both large-scale infrastructure/industrial investment and affordable housing is correct.