As of today (November 30, 2025), we are only about one month into the predicted 2–3 month “risk‑off” window and still well before February 2026, when Chamath predicted markets would be “firmly in risk on mode.” That means the full timeline of the forecast (through at least February 2026) has not yet played out, so its ultimate accuracy cannot be judged.

Available data for November 2025 show a mixed picture: some indicators point to improved risk appetite among U.S. equity investors, while others show emerging caution and modest outflows from global equity funds, suggesting neither a clearly entrenched, multi‑month risk‑off phase nor confirmation of the later risk‑on rebound. (spglobal.com)

Because the key test of the prediction is the state of market sentiment by February 2026—which is still in the future—the forecast must be considered too early to call.