The prediction is explicitly about what will happen “over the coming years” starting from October 24, 2025, so only about five weeks of real time have passed—far too little to judge multi‑year migration and tax‑base effects.

Available data up to 2023–2024 show trends before the prediction, not what happens after it:

• New York State tax department migration tables show that millionaire address changes spiked in 2020 and then declined toward pre‑Covid rates by 2022–2023, suggesting no ongoing acceleration in high‑earner flight as of the latest official data. (tax.ny.gov)
• A July 2025 Fiscal Policy Institute analysis finds that the top 1% of New Yorkers increased in number between 2019 and 2022 and that high‑earner migration rates had largely returned to normal, with no statistically significant evidence that recent state tax hikes caused unusually high millionaire out‑migration. (fiscalpolicy.org)
• Other analyses highlight a longer‑run loss of income and residents from New York to states like Florida and Texas, and a shrinking share of U.S. millionaires in New York, which has already reduced potential tax revenue. However, these effects are measured over 2010–2022 or the past decade, not the post‑October‑2025 period the prediction refers to. (cbcny.org)

Because (1) the claim is about a future, multi‑year "exodus" driven by the current roughly 17% top combined income‑tax burden, and (2) there has not yet been enough time for new, post‑prediction migration/tax‑base data to be collected and analyzed, it is too early to determine whether Jason’s forecast will prove correct. Hence the result is inconclusive (too early) rather than right or wrong at this point.