Chamath @ 01:02:07Inconclusive
techai
For Tesla/Optimus (or similar Elon Musk humanoid robots), the first million units produced will primarily be deployed on Mars rather than on Earth (e.g., in factories or other terrestrial settings).
If I had to bet, I think a very fun Polly market is where do the first million robots go? I'm willing to bet dollars to donuts that these robots go to Mars. I don't think they're going to.
Explanation
As of now (November 30, 2025), Tesla’s humanoid robot Optimus is still in relatively early development and prototyping:
- Tesla has shown several Optimus prototypes and small-batch units, but there is no credible reporting that anything close to 1,000,000 units have been produced or deployed.
- There is also no record of Optimus (or any other Elon Musk–associated humanoid robot line) being shipped to or operating on Mars; current and near-term Mars missions use traditional rover/lander platforms, not humanoid robots.
Because the condition in Chamath’s prediction refers specifically to where the first million robots are deployed (Mars vs. Earth), and that milestone has not occurred yet, there is no way to assess the truth of the prediction at this time. It could still be right or wrong in the future, but currently it’s too early to tell, so the status is inconclusive.