So there's all these reasons why eventually all these three big companies will converge effectively. Roughly a third, a third, a third. We're going to debate the path to get there. But that's where they'll end up.
As of 30 November 2025, available market‑share data shows that AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform have not yet converged to anything close to a 33/33/33 split in public cloud infrastructure, but Chamath’s claim was explicitly about where they will “eventually” end up in a mature, steady‑state market. That time horizon has clearly not arrived, so the prediction cannot yet be judged true or false.
Recent analyst estimates for global cloud infrastructure (IaaS+PaaS) continue to show AWS in the lead, Azure gaining, and GCP a distant third: for example, 2024–2025 reports from firms such as Synergy Research and Canalys put AWS at roughly the low‑30s percent share, Azure in the mid‑20s, and Google Cloud around low‑ to mid‑teens, with the remainder split among other providers (Alibaba Cloud, Oracle, IBM, etc.). These numbers confirm that:
- The market is still meaningfully not three‑way equal; GCP is far from AWS/Azure’s scale, and a non‑trivial “other” category still exists.
- The industry itself is still evolving rapidly, including major AI‑driven and specialized cloud services, which makes it hard to claim we’ve reached the “mature, non‑AI public cloud infrastructure market” he was talking about.
Because the prediction is about the eventual end state of a market that is still in flux decades before any plausible maturity, the correct assessment today is that it’s too early to tell whether the market will converge to the ~33/33/33 split Chamath forecast. Hence the result is inconclusive (too early).