Chamath @ 00:04:18Inconclusive
politicsgovernment
If California voters approve the billionaire wealth tax and courts later overturn it, California legislators will subsequently enact a new, legally compliant progressive tax package aimed at high-wealth individuals, using the popular vote as justification.
The reality is that this sets it up to go through the legislature, because if it goes through the will of the people and it gets overturned, as you say, Friberg, then if you're legislatively smart, then you'll actually push it through the state Senate... So I think that you'll have some kind of progressive taxation system that conforms to the law.
Explanation
As of November 30, 2025, there has been no California ballot measure approved by voters establishing a billionaire wealth/wealth-tax of the kind described, no subsequent court invalidation of such a voter‑approved tax, and therefore no follow‑on legislative tax package using that voter approval as justification.
Key points:
- California has had proposals and discussions about wealth or high-earner taxes (e.g., various ideas from legislators and activists), but no enacted, voter-approved billionaire wealth tax that was then struck down in court is documented in the news or in official state records by this date.
- Because the contingent sequence in Chamath’s prediction (1) voter approval, (2) judicial overturning, then (3) legislative action, has not even begun, we cannot yet say whether the legislature will later respond in the way he predicts.
Since the triggering events have not occurred and the relevant election cycles (e.g., November 2026) are still in the future, the correctness of the prediction cannot yet be evaluated, so the status is “inconclusive (too early)”.