Available public data don’t let us cleanly test Jason’s specific ratio (≈1/3 of deported people being self‑reported/self‑deported), and the government has not released the granular breakdown his prediction relies on.

Key points:

1. What we can see in official‑adjacent stats

   • The Justice Department’s Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) reports 15,241 grants of voluntary departure in the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2025, up from 8,663 the prior year.
   • Over roughly the same period, ICE states it carried out 319,980 deportations (Oct. 1, 2024–Sept. 20, 2025).(washingtonpost.com)
   • If you naively treat “voluntary departure” + “deportations” as the relevant universe, that would imply on the order of 4–5% of formal exits were via voluntary departure—not anywhere near Jason’s “about one‑third.” However, these figures mix months under Biden and Trump, and it’s unclear whether all voluntary‑departure cases are (or are not) counted inside ICE’s deportation total, so this is not a clean Trump‑term ratio.

2. Data needed to directly test his claim are missing

   • The Migration Policy Institute notes that DHS stopped releasing detailed ICE/CBP enforcement tables after November 2024, and that for FY 2025 only partial, aggregated estimates (e.g., ~340,000 ICE deportations) are available—without breakdowns showing what share involved people who “self‑reported” vs. were arrested in raids.(migrationpolicy.org)
   • A Heritage Foundation analysis of Trump’s 2025 deportation push points out that DHS is not currently producing or publishing the detailed immigration‑enforcement statistics needed to substantiate its own claims, and specifically notes that DHS has not shared any statistics on how many people have used the CBP Home app to self‑deport.(heritage.org)
   • Reporting based on AP/EOIR data says it is “impossible to know how many people left the U.S. voluntarily” since Trump took office because many leave without telling authorities, underscoring that self‑deportation numbers (and thus any precise fraction of deportees who self‑reported) cannot be reliably calculated.(washingtonpost.com)

3. Conflicting and opaque government messaging

   • A DHS press line cited by Heritage claims that 2 million people have left since Trump returned to office, with 1.6 million described as voluntary self‑deportations and more than 400,000 as deportations, implying a very high voluntary‑departure share among all exits—but this figure comes with no public underlying data and is criticized for inconsistency and lack of transparency.(heritage.org)
   • A secondary data aggregator similarly repeats that voluntary departures are around 38% of “total exits” under Trump, again working from DHS/ICE press numbers rather than detailed official tables, and without clarifying how “total exits” maps onto the narrower category of formal deportations Jason referenced.(theglobalstatistics.com)

Because:

• Official, disaggregated enforcement data for Trump’s current term (2025) have not been published in the level of detail needed;
• Independent analyses explicitly state it is impossible to know total voluntary/self‑deportations and that DHS has not provided CBP Home usage stats; and
• The limited stats we do see (EOIR voluntary departures vs. ICE deportations) suggest a share far below one‑third, but with definitional and timeframe mismatches,

we cannot definitively determine whether “about one‑third of those we deported self‑reported” is true or false based on verifiable statistics. The prediction therefore falls into the “ambiguous” category rather than clearly right or clearly wrong.