Polymarket’s market explicitly defined the event as: “Hamas releases all living Israeli hostages held in Gaza by October 31, 2025.” Hostage rescues were excluded; only voluntary release of living hostages counted. (polymarket.com)

On 13 October 2025, Hamas released the last 20 living Israeli hostages to the Red Cross/IDF under the Trump-brokered Gaza peace plan, as reported by ABC News, The Guardian, People, and other outlets, and summarized in reference entries for the Gaza war hostage crisis and specific hostages (e.g., Alon Ohel, Rom Braslavski, Bar Kupershtein). All of these sources state that by that date all remaining living hostages had been freed and returned to Israel alive. (abc.net.au)

Encyclopedic overviews of the ceasefire/hostage deal note that the last 20 living hostages were released on October 13, 2025, while the return of the bodies of deceased hostages lagged behind; as of late October and even November, some remains were still held in Gaza. These accounts clearly distinguish between “living hostages” and “bodies of slain hostages.” (britannica.com)

Polymarket’s own multi-date “Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by…?” contract shows the October 31th line resolved as “Yes,” consistent with the fact that all living hostages had already been released well before the October 31 deadline. (polymarket.com)

Jason’s statement—paraphrased as Polymarket implying that by October 31, 2025, 100% of the remaining Israeli hostages (understood per the market rules as the remaining living hostages) would have been released and returned alive—matches what actually happened. Living hostages were all freed and back in Israel by October 13, and no credible reporting indicates any of them died before October 31. Therefore, under the interpretation used by Polymarket and contemporary reporting (which separates living hostages from the remains of the dead), the prediction is right.