It looks like Polymarket will be launched in the US imminently. There's actually a Polymarket for Polymarket being available in the US for trades... 98% chance now that Polymarket will go live in the US in 2025.View on YouTube
Evidence from late 2025 shows that Polymarket did, in fact, become legally available for real‑money trading to users in the United States during 2025, even if only in a limited beta.
Key points:
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Regulatory green light in 2025
- In September 2025, the CFTC issued a no‑action letter related to Polymarket’s US return via its acquired, CFTC‑licensed exchange QCX (rebranded as Polymarket US). This was publicly described by CEO Shayne Coplan as the “green light to go live in the USA.” (casinobeats.com)
- In late November 2025, Polymarket obtained an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC, explicitly authorizing it to operate an intermediated contract market in the US and to directly onboard US customers and brokerages. (yogonet.com) These actions establish that real‑money Polymarket trading by US users is legally permitted under US derivatives law.
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Actual US trading (limited beta) with real money in 2025
Multiple independent reports in November 2025 state that Polymarket reopened in the US in beta form, with real‑money event contracts available to a limited set of US users:- Yahoo Finance reported that Polymarket had begun live testing its US exchange, onboarding a slice of users and matching real trades as part of a limited rollout. (finance.yahoo.com)
- Webopedia, LiveBitcoinNews, and ForkLog all describe a US beta relaunch where a restricted group of users is already placing real bets / trading live contracts on Polymarket US. (webopedia.com)
These accounts confirm that by mid‑November 2025, some US‑based users were legally trading real‑money markets on Polymarket’s US platform.
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Public rollout still pending but not required by the prediction
Other coverage notes that as of late November 2025 the full public launch and broad consumer availability are still pending; US users going to the global site remain geoblocked and must wait for the dedicated US venue to fully open. (datawallet.com) However, the normalized prediction only requires that Polymarket “become legally available for real‑money trading by users in the United States sometime during calendar year 2025,” not that it be broadly or universally available.
Given that (a) US regulators explicitly cleared Polymarket’s US operation in 2025, and (b) a limited but real group of US users has been legally trading real‑money event contracts on Polymarket US during a beta in November 2025, the condition was satisfied within calendar year 2025. Therefore, Jason’s prediction resolves as right.