As of November 30, 2025, there is not yet an Ellison-controlled, fully integrated "legacy studios + TikTok‑style" video platform whose actual performance can be measured against YouTube and Netflix, so the prediction can’t reasonably be judged.

What has happened:

• David Ellison’s Skydance completed its $8B merger with Paramount Global on August 7, 2025, creating Paramount Skydance and giving the Ellison family control of a major legacy studio and streaming portfolio (Paramount+, Pluto TV, CBS, cable networks, etc.). (prnewswire.com)
• In parallel, an Oracle‑ and Silver Lake‑led consortium (with MGX and other U.S. investors) is in the process of acquiring a majority stake in TikTok’s U.S. operations, with ByteDance reduced below 20%. The deal structure and 90–120‑day closing windows are laid out, but the transaction is still being finalized and TikTok U.S. has not yet been re‑launched under the new ownership or technically integrated with Paramount Skydance’s services. (reuters.com)
• Analysts and reporters describe Larry and David Ellison as building a new media empire positioned to challenge incumbents like Netflix and Disney, potentially including further acquisitions such as Warner Bros. Discovery, but these are characterized as ambitions and strategic positioning rather than an already‑realized platform at scale. (businessinsider.com)

Against this, current viewing‑share data still show YouTube and Netflix as the dominant global video platforms, with YouTube at about 13.4% and Netflix at 8.8% of U.S. TV viewing in July 2025, while Paramount’s streaming portfolio (Paramount+ plus Pluto TV) sits around 1.9–2.2% and Warner Bros. Discovery/Max around 1.5%. (nielsen.com) There is no evidence yet of a combined Ellison-owned service (e.g., Paramount+ / Pluto tightly fused with TikTok distribution and premium upsells) that is directly rivaling YouTube and Netflix in either total global watch time or creator relationships.

Because Friedberg’s prediction was explicitly about what may happen over time once such a convergence occurs, and the necessary assets (especially TikTok U.S.) are only just being assembled and not yet product-integrated or at scale, it is far too early—barely a couple of months after the podcast—to say whether this future Ellison media‑and‑social platform will or will not become a top‑tier competitor to YouTube and Netflix. The enabling deals are incomplete and the hypothesized product does not yet exist in a testable form. Therefore, the outcome is currently inconclusive (too early to call).