Charlie Kirk Murder, Assassination Culture in America, Jimmy Kimmel Suspended, Ellison Media Empire

As of November 30, 2025, the preconditions Friedberg described are largely in motion, but his prediction is explicitly about a multi‑year restructuring, so it’s too early to know if it will “rewrite the entire media landscape.”

• Paramount/Skydance consolidation: Skydance’s takeover of Paramount Global closed on August 7, 2025, creating “Paramount Skydance” under David Ellison’s control, with significant cost‑cutting and strategic reshaping already under way. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Potential Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition: Paramount Skydance has made and is preparing further bids for Warner Bros. Discovery, and WBD is running an auction process (including other bidders like Comcast and Netflix). WBD has already rejected at least one Ellison‑backed offer, and as of late November 2025 no sale to Paramount Skydance has closed; WBD is still soliciting improved bids and weighing options including a breakup. (cnbc.com) This means the “potential acquisition” Friedberg ties into his thesis remains uncertain.
• Ellison‑linked involvement in TikTok: In September 2025, an Oracle‑led consortium fronted by Larry Ellison agreed to take roughly an 80% controlling stake in TikTok’s U.S. business, with Oracle running U.S. data and the recommendation algorithm under a new American entity. (reuters.com) Reporting has already framed Ellison as emerging as a major media‑tech power player, connecting his backing of Skydance/Paramount with his role in TikTok US. (forbes.com)

However, Friedberg’s claim is that this combination will, over multiple years, “rewrite the entire media landscape” with new dominant players and business models centered on the Ellison empire. Only a few months have elapsed since both the Paramount Skydance merger and the TikTok deal framework; the Warner Bros. Discovery piece is not yet resolved, and the long‑term competitive and business‑model impacts are inherently not observable over such a short window. Thus, while early moves align with the setup of his thesis, whether they actually lead to the sweeping, Ellison‑centric restructuring he describes cannot yet be determined.

As of November 30, 2025, neither of the specific outcomes Friedberg described has occurred, but the time window (“within the next several years”) has not expired.

What the prediction requires

1. (a) A corporate merger between Ellison‑controlled legacy media assets and TikTok US. In practice this would mean Paramount/Skydance (and possibly a future Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition) combining corporate structures with TikTok’s U.S. entity.
2. (b) Or a deep commercial integration where TikTok itself sells premium studio content (e.g., HBO/Discovery shows) inside the TikTok app on a paid basis (subscription or per‑episode).

What has actually happened so far

• David Ellison completed the merger of Skydance Media with Paramount Global in August 2025, forming Paramount Skydance, which he controls as chairman and CEO.(reuters.com) This matches the “Ellison‑controlled legacy media” setup assumed in the prediction.
• A Trump‑brokered restructuring of TikTok’s U.S. operations would give an Oracle‑led U.S. investor group major control, including licensing TikTok’s recommendation algorithm and overseeing security. Public reporting indicates Larry Ellison/Oracle and allied media tycoons (including the Murdochs) as key stakeholders, with David Ellison frequently mentioned in connection with the prospective board.(theguardian.com) This creates common ownership and influence, but it is not a corporate merger of Paramount Skydance (or WBD) with TikTok US.
• Paramount Skydance is actively pursuing a takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery (the owner of HBO and Discovery), but as of late November 2025 WBD has rejected multiple bids and no deal has closed.(en.wikipedia.org) So the “Ellison‑controlled Warner Bros. Discovery” part of the scenario is still hypothetical.
• TikTok has launched and expanded its Series product, which lets individual creators sell premium, paywalled long‑form videos (up to 20 minutes) directly in the app.(newsroom.tiktok.com) However, there is no public evidence that Warner Bros. Discovery (HBO/Discovery) or Paramount Skydance are using Series or any other TikTok product to sell full HBO or Discovery shows as an in‑app subscription or per‑episode offering. Existing WBD–TikTok activity is promotional/social (e.g., memes, hashtag challenges, marketing clips), not full catalogue distribution.(businessinsider.com)

Why the verdict is ‘inconclusive’

• Outcome (a) has not happened: there is no announced corporate merger between TikTok US and Paramount Skydance or (yet) WBD—only overlapping ownership/influence via the Ellison/Oracle group.
• Outcome (b) has not happened: TikTok does offer paywalled premium content via Series, but not as a distribution channel for HBO/Discovery shows in the way Friedberg described.
• Because the prediction explicitly allows for this to occur “within the next several years” and we are only about two months past the podcast date (September 19, 2025), the forecast cannot yet be definitively judged right or wrong.

So, as of late 2025: the structural pieces Friedberg anticipated (Ellisons deeply involved in both a major legacy media conglomerate and TikTok US) are partially in place, but neither the specific merger nor the TikTok‑hosted HBO/Discovery premium offering he described has materialized yet. Hence the status is inconclusive (too early to tell).

As of November 30, 2025, there is not yet an Ellison-controlled, fully integrated "legacy studios + TikTok‑style" video platform whose actual performance can be measured against YouTube and Netflix, so the prediction can’t reasonably be judged.

What has happened:

• David Ellison’s Skydance completed its $8B merger with Paramount Global on August 7, 2025, creating Paramount Skydance and giving the Ellison family control of a major legacy studio and streaming portfolio (Paramount+, Pluto TV, CBS, cable networks, etc.). (prnewswire.com)
• In parallel, an Oracle‑ and Silver Lake‑led consortium (with MGX and other U.S. investors) is in the process of acquiring a majority stake in TikTok’s U.S. operations, with ByteDance reduced below 20%. The deal structure and 90–120‑day closing windows are laid out, but the transaction is still being finalized and TikTok U.S. has not yet been re‑launched under the new ownership or technically integrated with Paramount Skydance’s services. (reuters.com)
• Analysts and reporters describe Larry and David Ellison as building a new media empire positioned to challenge incumbents like Netflix and Disney, potentially including further acquisitions such as Warner Bros. Discovery, but these are characterized as ambitions and strategic positioning rather than an already‑realized platform at scale. (businessinsider.com)

Against this, current viewing‑share data still show YouTube and Netflix as the dominant global video platforms, with YouTube at about 13.4% and Netflix at 8.8% of U.S. TV viewing in July 2025, while Paramount’s streaming portfolio (Paramount+ plus Pluto TV) sits around 1.9–2.2% and Warner Bros. Discovery/Max around 1.5%. (nielsen.com) There is no evidence yet of a combined Ellison-owned service (e.g., Paramount+ / Pluto tightly fused with TikTok distribution and premium upsells) that is directly rivaling YouTube and Netflix in either total global watch time or creator relationships.

Because Friedberg’s prediction was explicitly about what may happen over time once such a convergence occurs, and the necessary assets (especially TikTok U.S.) are only just being assembled and not yet product-integrated or at scale, it is far too early—barely a couple of months after the podcast—to say whether this future Ellison media‑and‑social platform will or will not become a top‑tier competitor to YouTube and Netflix. The enabling deals are incomplete and the hypothesized product does not yet exist in a testable form. Therefore, the outcome is currently inconclusive (too early to call).

Key parts of the prediction are only partly observable by November 30, 2025, and the long‑run effects it specifies (“over the ensuing years”) have not yet played out.

1. Forced divestiture to an independent owner
   – In April 2024, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA) was signed, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations or face a ban.(en.wikipedia.org)
   – The Supreme Court upheld this law in TikTok, Inc. v. Garland in January 2025, allowing the divestiture/bannng regime to take effect.(snopes.com)
   – In September 2025, President Trump issued an executive order deeming a divestiture plan a “qualified divestiture” under PAFACA and extending enforcement deadlines, with an Oracle–Silver Lake–led consortium expected to control ~80% of TikTok’s U.S. operations, leaving ByteDance with <20%. Oracle is not an incumbent consumer social‑media platform like Meta, Alphabet, Snap, etc., so this structure matches “an owner independent from the existing major US social platforms.”(reuters.com)
   – However, as of late November 2025 TikTok is still “in the process of divesting about 80% of its U.S. assets” and operating under transitional arrangements; the transaction and full restructuring are not yet complete.(reuters.com)

2. Increased regulatory scrutiny of recommendation algorithms
   – PAFACA and subsequent litigation and rule‑making have focused explicitly on foreign control, data access and potential content manipulation via TikTok’s recommendation systems. Court opinions and commentary repeatedly frame TikTok’s algorithm as a national‑security and information‑integrity risk.(reuters.com)
   – Trump’s 2025 executive order and related analyses describe the settlement conditions as requiring “intense monitoring of software updates, algorithms, and data flows” and that “all recommendation models…must be retrained and monitored” by U.S. “trusted security partners” (with Oracle commonly named), which is a direct, formal regulatory intervention into how TikTok’s recommender works.(internetgovernance.org)
   – This clearly shows heightened U.S. governmental focus on at least one major recommender system (TikTok US). But whether this will translate into a durable, system‑wide shift in how all large‑scale social‑media algorithms are regulated is still uncertain.

3. “Greater competitive diversity” among large‑scale social‑media algorithms
   – Available reporting describes the ownership and governance deal (Oracle/Silver Lake consortium, separate U.S.-only app and algorithm, retraining with U.S. data, U.S. data residency, etc.), but does not yet provide clear empirical evidence that this has produced greater competitive diversity in the broader social‑media algorithm landscape (e.g., a sustained increase in the number or distinctiveness of competing large‑scale recommendation systems, or structural weakening of Meta/Alphabet’s positions) attributable to the divestiture.(reuters.com)
   – Competing short‑video algorithms (Reels, YouTube Shorts, Snapchat Spotlight, etc.) were already in place before PAFACA and the 2025 divestiture framework, and no current sources show a clear, causally linked market‑structure change that can be credited to the TikTok divestiture rather than to ongoing competition and prior trends. This absence of evidence makes the “greater competitive diversity” part of the prediction impossible to verify at this time.

4. Timing (“over the ensuing years”)
   – The podcast was released in September 2025, and as of November 30, 2025, only a little over a year and a half has passed since PAFACA became law and just a couple of months since the divestiture framework was formally approved. The new U.S. TikTok entity is expected to testify before Congress in 2026, and its U.S‑only algorithm and governance model are still being implemented.(reuters.com)
   – Because the prediction explicitly speaks about changes “over the ensuing years,” and the key structural changes (new ownership, new algorithm, ongoing oversight) are still mid‑transition, there has not yet been enough time to measure the long‑run systemic impact on regulatory practice and market diversity.

Given: (a) the divestiture is in progress but not fully completed; (b) regulatory scrutiny of TikTok’s recommendation algorithm has clearly intensified but system‑wide effects are not yet knowable; and (c) there is no solid evidence yet of increased overall competitive diversity in large‑scale social‑media algorithms, the most reasonable classification as of November 30, 2025 is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than clearly right or wrong.

There is a real, ongoing forced‑divestiture process for TikTok’s U.S. operations that is being shaped under Trump’s second administration (via enforcement of the 2024 Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, the Supreme Court’s TikTok v. Garland decision in January 2025, and a Trump executive order in September 2025 approving a divestiture plan and extending deadlines). ByteDance is in the process of selling roughly 80% of its U.S. TikTok assets to a U.S.-led consortium, with the recommendation algorithm to be retrained or licensed under U.S. supervision. (en.wikipedia.org)

Regulatory and public scrutiny of recommendation algorithms has clearly intensified in 2024–2025 across many platforms:

• New York’s SAFE for Kids Act and California’s SB 976 restrict “addictive” algorithmic feeds for minors and require chronological feeds instead. (cohealthcom.org)
• The federal Kids Off Social Media Act would ban personalized recommendation systems for users under 17, and the bipartisan Algorithm Accountability Act would create liability when recommendation algorithms foreseeably cause physical harm. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Numerous state AG lawsuits (e.g., Minnesota) directly attack TikTok’s and other platforms’ “addictive algorithms,” and advocacy groups explicitly frame the problem as harmful design and recommender systems, not just content. (apnews.com)
  These developments show a broad policy shift toward scrutinizing recommendation engines.

However, much of this algorithm‑focused push predates the TikTok divestiture fight and grew out of earlier concerns (Facebook whistleblower leaks, teen‑mental‑health debates, the Kids Online Safety Act process, Utah’s and other states’ 2023–24 laws targeting “addictive” feeds, and earlier TikTok/RESTRICT‑Act efforts). (en.wikipedia.org) The PAFACA/TikTok saga certainly kept TikTok’s algorithm and the risks of covert content manipulation in the headlines and in court opinions, but current coverage still frames that mainly as a national‑security/foreign‑influence milestone rather than as the clear watershed moment for regulating recommendation algorithms across all platforms. (en.wikipedia.org)

Because (a) the divestiture has not fully closed and its ultimate governance/algorithm‑access structure is still being worked out, and (b) it is too early to know whether historians and regulators will treat this particular “TikTok sale under Trump” as a major turning point, as opposed to one important episode within a broader, already‑underway trend, there is not yet enough evidence to judge Chamath’s claim definitively. Hence the prediction is best scored as inconclusive (too early to tell) rather than clearly right or wrong.

As of November 30, 2025, there is no recognized civil war occurring in the United States; political institutions, elections, and law enforcement remain functioning nationwide, and major news and academic sources describe U.S. tensions in terms such as polarization, political violence, and in some cases democratic backsliding or risk of civil conflict, but not an actual civil war.

However, the prediction is:

If the current trend of politically motivated violence and intolerance of opposing speech in the United States continues, it will ultimately lead to a civil war.

Key points:

• It is explicitly conditional ("if the current trend continues"). Whether that trend continues indefinitely is itself uncertain and not fully observable yet.
• It has no explicit timeframe (no date or generation specified), so it is a long‑range, effectively open‑ended prediction.
• Since a U.S. civil war is a large, discrete event that has not happened yet, we cannot say the prediction is correct.
• Because the timeframe is unspecified and we are still well within the future in which such an event could occur, we also cannot confidently label it wrong.

Given the lack of a specified deadline and the fact that the predicted event (a U.S. civil war) has neither occurred nor been rendered impossible, the status of the prediction as of November 30, 2025 is inconclusive rather than right, wrong, or permanently ambiguous.

Evidence from coverage of the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix shows that the prediction came true. A Nevada Business article on The Venetian Resort’s F1 activations for the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix (held November 20–22, 2025) reports that the resort “welcomed the hosts of the All-In Podcast – Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis and David Friedberg, for an exclusive Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend experience”, noting that they recorded an episode at The Venetian and “took in the excitement of the race at the Velocity Club, the resort’s premier trackside viewing platform.” (nevadabusiness.com)

Since this explicitly places Friedberg and Jason Calacanis at the Las Vegas Formula One event on the 2025 race weekend in November, the prediction that they would be at the Las Vegas F1 event in November 2025 is correct.