Evidence from multiple outlets and Fed-related summaries shows that at the September 16–17, 2025 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, from 4.25%–4.50% to 4.00%–4.25%, marking its first cut since December 2024—i.e., not a 50 bp move. (cbsnews.com)

At the subsequent meeting on October 28–29, 2025, the FOMC again lowered the target range by 25 basis points, to 3.75%–4.00%. Both the Fed’s own minutes and independent market commentary describe this as the second consecutive 0.25% rate cut, following the September move. (federalreserve.gov)

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025 and has not yet occurred as of November 30, 2025, but Sacks’ prediction only required that the Fed cut 25 bps in September and then deliver at least one additional 25 bp cut afterward—which has already happened with the October cut. (federalreserve.gov)